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2024 Stats: .288/.419/.569, 23 HRs, 109 RBI, 129 BB, .989 OPS and 8.1 WAR
Contract Prediction: 14 years, $658 million with opt-out available after 2030 season
Team Prediction: New York Yankees
There’s only a few ownership groups willing to spend that type of money, even for a 26-year-old who is probably the most enticing free agent since Alex Rodriguez hit the open market after the 2000 season.
Consider that one of the owners who has consistently shelled out big money in recent years—Phillies managing partner John Middleton—recently cast doubt on whether Soto would really leave New York.
“At some point, if Dave and I get that feeling, we’ll probably say ‘You know what, we’re not going to win this’ because we’ve both been the stalking horse before. And if I were an agent, I would do it too. It’s perfectly good strategy. I mean, it’s smart. But at the end of the day, I just think he likes New York.”
Soto began his career with the Nationals, winning a World Series with D.C. in 2019. He had a detour with the Padres for a year-and-a-half. But the second he put on the Yankees pinstripes, it just felt like he was always meant to play in New York.
In his first season with the Yankees, he put up the finest campaign in a career that’s probably already headed to Cooperstown, hitting 41 home runs with 109 RBI, a .989 OPS and a career-high 8.1 WAR.
Considering he also sent the Yankees to the World Series with an epic at-bat that culminated in a go-ahead home run against the Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of the ALCS, it’s difficult to imagine the Yankees letting him out the door:
Talkin’ Yanks @TalkinYanks
Top 10 Yankees moments of 2024
#1: Juan Soto sends the Yankees to the World Series pic.twitter.com/iW5rncwhgK
With that said, the Steinbrenner family is no longer the richest ownership group in New York. Steve Cohen of the Mets is worth $21.3 billion, per Forbes.
It was the Mets that edged out the Yankees for the highest payroll this past season at $317 million. The Mets also reached the NLCS and are arguably set up even better for long-term success than the Yankees.
So it appears it will be one of the two New York teams that employs Soto for the foreseeable future.
Heyman has reported that both Hal Steinbrenner and Cohen plan to visit with Boras and Soto on the West Coast in the coming weeks. It will be interesting to see how the two try to differentiate their offers.
The Yankees have the slight advantage of incumbency, but it would hardly be a shock if Soto is a Met next year.
