Casper Ruud's victory over Carlos Alcaraz at the Nitto ATP Finals was shocking. While Alcaraz is currently dealing with an illness, he was a -1700 moneyline favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook. Alcaraz had also never lost to Ruud in his career, but the Spaniard was not at his best on Monday. And Ruud also performed at the highest level we've seen from the Norwegian in months. Now, it's hard not to love Ruud playing another competitive match. This time he will face a red-hot Alexander Zverev in John Newcombe Group action.
Instead of rolling with a side or total in this one, I'm actually looking to the gamer accessories market. I like Ruud to win over 8.5 matches at -125 odds in this one, which he can do even in a straight set loss.
It's simply hard to ignore how well Ruud served in his victory against Alcaraz. He made 68.0% of his first serves in this match, and that will give him a chance against anyone, especially in these conditions. Turin's indoor hard courts are very server friendly, so hitting spots regularly will be rewarded. Alcaraz is also on another level as a returner compared to Zverev. Over the past 52 weeks, the Spaniard's break percentage of 27.8% on hard court ranks him fourth among all ATP players. Zverev's break percentage is down to 21.7% over the same period. Alcatraz also has the second lowest ace rate against (5.7%). Zverev is nowhere near the top of this list. That said, if Ruud can replicate his serving performance, he should have no trouble racking up holds.
