As the offseason has gotten underway, the Boston Red Sox have made it clear they plan to spend this winter and assemble a more competitive roster.
“I truly believe this is the last struggle,” manager Alex Cora, who signed a three-year extension this summer, said of his club’s poor play.
“We asked our fans to sacrifice a lot, to be patient as we build the foundation that would enable us to meet those goals. I think we’re here. I think we’re ready to deliver,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said at the end of the season.
At the GM meetings last week, agent Scott Boras said the Red Sox have been engaged and aggressive in pursuing top players.
All of that is well and good, but even if the Red Sox intend to return to the top of the market this winter, their lackluster performances and lower payrolls over the last five years have undoubtedly made them longshots to land two of the top players this winter: right-hander Roki Sasaki and outfielder Juan Soto. In other words, their past actions — or inactions — are likely to have current consequences.
The fanbase is skeptical and cynical with the club’s mediocrity and malaise and the free-agent players themselves are likely to focus on organizations that have been more committed to winning at all costs in recent years.
All of this is important to keep in mind when discussing the Red Sox’s pursuit of Soto and Sasaki, in particular.
On Tuesday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the Red Sox are among a handful of teams set to meet this week with Soto, one of baseball’s premier hitters, who has averaged a .953 OPS and 160 OPS+ over seven seasons.
Meanwhile, over the weekend, Sasaki, a 23-year-old starter considered the best in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, announced his intentions to move to MLB this season. His team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, has yet to post him to MLB, which would mark Sasaki’s first step towards being able to sign with a major-league club, but that is expected to happen within the next month.
It’s not as if both players are perfect fits for Boston. Soto is a left-handed-hitting outfielder. The Red Sox already have a surplus of left-handed-hitting outfielders, but Soto is such a good hitter that trading one from their current group seems more than feasible.
Taking on a $600 million deal is a hefty bill, and the Red Sox appeared to have just reset their payroll after years of reduced spending. But Soto just turned 26 and is a good bet to have years of productivity ahead of him. That would give him several prime years to be surrounded by a burgeoning young core either on the Red Sox already or on its way soon. It’s not hard to imagine Soto’s left-handed swing fitting well at Fenway.
Sasaki might not have Ohtani-level talent, but he’s as good as any free-agent starter on the market and at 23, the youngest by several years. In four NPB seasons, he had a 2.10 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with a 32.4 percent strikeout rate. He projects as a No. 1 starter, but did deal with shoulder injuries this past season that limited his innings.
Unlike Soto, who’s projected to land a deal north of 10 years and $600 million, Sasaki will enter MLB as an amateur free agent and therefore can only sign a minor-league deal. Like other MLB amateurs, he’d then be under team control for six seasons and subject to MLB’s arbitration system before free agency. He’s exactly the kind of young, controllable starter the Red Sox — and every team — pines for.
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While the bidding war for Soto will be fierce (and expensive), teams can’t quite outbid each other for Sasaki. Each team only has a set pool of money to sign amateur international free agents. For the 2025 signing period (which begins on Jan. 15), those pools range from $5.1 million to $7.6 million (the 2024 signing period ends on Dec. 15).
That means Sasaki’s decision will mostly come down to which team he sees as the best fit. Would Sasaki be interested in Boston’s newly revamped pitching infrastructure, the chance to be the face of what they hope is a pitching resurgence? The Red Sox also have the benefit of four members of their strength and conditioning staff who speak Japanese, which would seem to be a benefit for Sasaki.
Sasaki, 23, has been one of the best starters in the NPB since debuting at age 19. (Eric Espada / Getty Images)
A Red Sox source confirmed to The Athletic that a group from the front office, led by Breslow and a handful of other baseball operations personnel made a trip to Japan this summer to watch Sasaski. (Since he was still under NPB control, MLB teams were forbidden to communicate with Sasaki, but still allowed to watch/scout him in person.) A scout who saw Sasaki in the World Baseball Classic at the start of 2023 labeled him as “impressive,” noting his triple-digit velocity and “very good splitter.”
According to The Athletic’s Will Sammon, Sasaki is prioritizing stability, lifestyle, comfort and a team’s track record with player development. While many believe the Los Angeles Dodgers are the front runners, given the presence of Ohtani and Yoshinobou Yamamoto, it’s unknown if Sasaki would actually prefer a team where he’s the main star in the rotation.
A young controllable starter in Sasaki and a power hitter like Soto are just what the Red Sox need. In years past, the Red Sox would have been sure contenders for either. But the way the team has operated the last several years has cost them some cachet in the game. Even if they plan to meet with Soto and to woo Sasaki, how much will they really be in the mix? Can they be serious contenders for either player?
The Red Sox have a chance to be in the mix for both Sasaki and Soto, but will their recent self-inflicted malaise cost them?
(Top photo of Soto: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
