Saturday’s UK placepots can be played via Tix at Aintree, Chelmsford, Doncaster, Kelso & Wincanton
But, what is Tix?
A video explainer can be found here.
You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >
A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
Today’s pools
Today’s UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows…
…with a huge guaranteed pot offered at Wincanton of all places. Let’s head there for six races on good ground starting with…
Race 1 @ 12.35a 6-runner, Class 3, 4-6yo Novice Hurdle over 1m7½f…
Sorceleur had a win and two places in four bumpers, including a 3rd of 11 in a Listed contest at Cheltenham and was only beaten by less than 4 lengths in a Grade 2 at the Aintree festival. he was then a runner-up on his hurdles debut at Exeter 18 days ago before returning to that venue to win by three lengths yesterday. If he runs today, then I don’t see any of the others beating him.
Of his rivals, I’d probably side with Clinton Lane, who won by a neck at Plumpton recently off the back of a 138-day absence, so he should come on for the run and he has won two of his last five.
Race 2 @ 1.09a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m4f…
Tedley and Dreaming Blue both come here on hat-tricks, but the latter has been out of action for nearly seven months. Duke of Luckley has been in the first three home in seven of his last eight over fences, winning twice including last time out and this is reflected in Instant Expert’s 2-year place overview…
…and it’d be Tedley and Duke of Luckley for me based on form and that graphic above.
Duke of Luckley was withdrawn whilst writing the column, so I’ve followed the market and replaced him with Beau Balko
Race 3 @ 1.45a 13-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m5½f…
Sabrina won two starts ago, but was pulled up last time out and hasn’t raced for six months. Pretending won a 16-runner Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham in April, had six months off and came back with another Class 2 win at Uttoxeter three weeks ago and now seeks a hat-trick.
The Height of Fame looks in the grip of the assessor after her mark went from 101 to 115 after results reading 1612 and she has toiled in a couple of races since. Bethpage has also shot up in the ratings with a hat-trick in the spring/summer taking her from an opening 91 to 109, a mark off which she still finished third of eleven at Worcester in July before a three month break. She returned to action a month ago to finish as a runner-up off 112 and she should go well off that mark today.
Larchmont Lass probably found 3m+ too much for her last time out, but she had been 4th of 17 in a Grade 2 handicap at Newbury prior to that run and the drop in trip should help her here, but the one to beat on form is possibly Mermaids Cave, who has four wins and a place from her last six and comes here off the back of a two length win at Bangor 11 days ago, despite coming off a 4-month break.
From a stats perspective, Pretending’s yard is in good nick…
…as are the yards of The Height of Fame…
…and Mermaids Cave…
…and I think it’s Mermaids Cave for me today ahead of Pretending and Larchmont Lass.
Race 4 @ 2.23a 5-runner, 4yo+ Grade 2 Novice Chase over 2m4f…
Insurrection and Boombawn were second and third separated by just a shirt head in a Listed race at Chepstow four weeks ago, but I prefer the former of the two, as he has the better set of previous results and that run last time out was his first crack at fences, so should come on for the run. Glynn was a runner-up at Wincanton last time out, ending a run of three straight wins over fences but he’s up in class here.
Handstands make a chase bow here after finishing 1116 in his four hurdles run, the only blot being his run in a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival, so no disgrace there and if he takes to fences, his win in a Listed event at Huntingdon in February shoes his potential. That said, he hasn’t raced for eight months.
Soul Icon always seems to find one (or more) too good for him and he has been the runner-up in each of his last four, but was only beaten by a neck in a Class 1 handicap last time out, but might also need the run after four months off.
On actual chase form, I’d take Insurrection and then Glynn, but (a) Glynn might be outclassed here and (b) I’m worried that chase debutant Handstands might bring his hurdles form with him, so it’s Handstands and Insurrection for me.
Race 5 @ 2.55a 3-runner, 4yo+ Grade 2 Hurdle over 1m7½f…
Rubaud has won seven of his fourteen hurdle races and recently returned from a six-month break to win a Listed contest at Kempton just as he did last season and he now attempts to repeat last year’s win in this contest too. Aspire Tower tuned up for this race by wining a 4-runner hurdle, but that was his first win after eight straight defeats and this looks a much tougher assignment and it’s quite likely he’s the last of the three home today, because Brentford Hope looks a better prospect despite a 193-day absence.
Brentford Hope was useful on the Flat and has brought that ground speed to his hurdles game, where he has only failed to make the frame once in twelve starts, winning five times and was a runner-up in a 24-runner Listed contest last time out and although I don’t think he beats Rubaud here, he’s on my tickets as back-up.
Race 6 @ 3.30a 10-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m1f…
Remastered clearly has ability as three wins and a narrow runner-up defeat from his last nine will testify, but on the other hand he has been pulled up in four of the five defeats in that sequence, so it will depend which Remastered we see here. Forward Plan has finished in the frame in 9 of 10 chases, wining 4 times, but might need a run after seven months off, whereas Riskinthegorund was third of eleven at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, albeit at Class 3.
The Changing Man usually goes well on his seasonal bow and comes here off the back of a good runner-up finish at Uttoxeter back in March. He was only beaten by a length and a quarter that day, but 22 lengths clear of the pack, so if he improves upon that, he’s in the mix, Mofasa’s yard (Paul Nicholls) has won this race in four of the last seven years
And whilst Mofasa is no Frodon (the 2022 winner), he has shown some promise so far and will no doubt have been aimed at this one and the yard has a great record here just 9 miles from home. Lord Accord is also of note, finishing 431 over hurdles before winning here by 16 lengths in a course and distance chase three weeks ago, but he is up two classes today.
When I looked at chase place form over the last two years on Instant Expert, only three runners had 2 blocks of green under today’s conditions…
…and although up in class here, Gustavian is 8lbs below his last winning mark, has been third in two of his last three starts and his yard (Anthony Honeyball) won this race last year, although stablemate Lord Baddesley is shorter in the market.
That said, front runners have done well over this track & trip and the head of the pace averages looks like this…
Overall, I still fancy the prospect of The Changing Man on his seasonal reappearance, but Remastered and Gustavian are longshots who might well outrun their odds. I’ll take this trio but in a safety first approach also add Lord Accord at the expense of Forward Plan and Mofasa.
*
All of which gives me…
Leg 1: (1) Clinton Lane & (4) Witcher
Leg 2: (1) Beau Balko & (3) Tedley
Leg 3: (2) Pretending, (10) Larchmont Lass & (11) Mermaids Cave
Leg 4: (3) Handstands & (4) Insurrection
Leg 5: (1) Rubaud & (3) Brentford Hope
Leg 6: (2) Remastered, (6) The Changing Man, (9) Lord Accord & (10) Gustavian
…and here’s how I’d play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake…
Have a great weekend!
Chris
