PSG, Brest, Monaco and Lille have already played four matches in this 2024-2025 Champions League. This allows Opta to more precisely estimate their chances of qualifying for the rest of the competition.
Who would have believed it? The day after the immense disappointment of PSG, beaten at the last second by Atlético de Madrid at the Parc des Princes (1-2) after having clearly dominated the debates, Paris' chances of qualifying for the rest of this Champions League 2024-2025 are now significantly lower than that of their heroic Brest compatriots.
This Thursday, Opta updated its projections for the 36 clubs in this league phase of the most prestigious European competition. And the least we can say is that after four days, the French clubs are not really where we expected them.
Two out of three chances of qualifying for PSG
The main surprise obviously comes from the reigning French champion. With 4 points in 4 days, PSG is in great difficulty and currently occupies a humiliating 25th place. If the competition ended today, the Parisians would simply be eliminated.
But Opta has not yet given up on a possible Parisian spring in the Champions League. The institute's projections still give Luis Enrique's men 67,8% chances of finishing in the first 24 and thus qualifying at least for the play-offs. The Ile-de-France residents, however, only have 18,8% chances of securing a place in the Top 16, which would allow them to face a lower ranked opponent in the play-offs with a return match at home.
On the other hand, the first eight places seem to be moving away from the Parisian sights: PSG's chances of qualifying directly for the round of 16 are now estimated at 2,7%.
Brest will (almost) surely see spring
Paris which trembles, therefore, but Brest which laughs. Winners on the pitch of Sparta Prague (1-2), the surprising Bretons continue their incredible start to the European campaign with no less than 10 points collected out of 12 possible. And if we are to believe Opta, Eric Roy's men have almost all of their two feet in the final table of this Champions League this Thursday (minus one nail).
According to the projections of the specialist in sports statistics, Stade Brestois has indeed 99,3% chances of qualifying at least for the play-offs. Better yet: Brest has 70,4% chances of securing a place in the first 16 and obtaining in the worst case a precious status as top seed in the play-offs.
Finally, the Holy Grail of the Top 8, unthinkable at the start of the season for a team without any European experience, is now no longer so illusory since Opta estimates 26,9% the Bretons' chances of going directly to the round of 16, without going through the play-off box.
Monaco on a highway
But the Brestois are not the best placed French representatives in this Champions League. To find the cracks of serenity, head to the Côte d'Azur where AS Monaco has also had an almost perfect start to the season. Opta now gives Adi Hütter's men 99,7% chances of entering the Top 24, and even almost 8 chances out of 10 (79,7%) to finish in the first 16.
Even a direct qualification for the round of 16 seems today within reach of the flamboyant Monegasque youth. Opta estimates 37,1% the chances of the men of the Rock avoiding a perilous detour via the dams.
Lille in a very good position
Last of the four French entrants in this Champions League, Lille is also in an excellent position at half-time of this league phase. The Mastiffs' chances of finishing in the top 24 are currently estimated at 94% by the statistical institute.
For a place in the Top 16, Losc will have to continue its serious momentum. Lille's chances of being at least seeded in the play-offs are now 54,6%. Finally, direct qualification for the round of 16 is far from impossible for the winners of Real and Atlético since Opta gives them 15,2% to watch, with a smile on his face, the roadblocks on television.
