We can therefore foment a rebellion (January 6, 2021), insult opponents and voters, vomit on the justice system and the media, lie shamelessly and be criminally convicted for accounting falsification, and yet reconquer the White House. In terms of democratic education, this is a rather desperate signal. But clearly, these are not the times for good manners.
If the final result had been disputed, there would only have been talk of disinformation and foreign interference. They are very real. The clarity of the result, however, changes the perspective. It forces us to analyze the deeper reasons for such success.
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The geo-electoral divide
Multiple reasons. Electorally, Kamala Harris' campaign suffered from a legitimacy deficit due to a late candidacy and an ambiguous positioning due to the refocusing of her previous positions. Sociologically, we find, even more accentuated, the geo-electoral divide between large progressive urban centers and conservative peripheries. Everywhere, even in Democratic states.
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Politically, certain sources are classic. The widespread surge in the Trump vote indicates deep support for several of the candidate's messages. In a world of bullies, Americans want a leader who can speak the language of bullies, prefer brutality to powerlessness. With Xi, Vladimir or Kim. One message in particular hit the mark. The Biden mandate ends with two ongoing wars, there were none under the first Trump mandate. Pure propaganda? Maybe. But between a precarious present (inflation) and an apocalyptic future (climate), the past (especially when it is embellished) is a safe haven.
Finally, culturally, the minorities (African-American, Hispanic, Arab-Muslim, etc.) on which the liberal camp counted did not choose to break through the glass ceiling. Is this so surprising? Perhaps one day it will be the Republicans who will elect a woman president.
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Europeans no longer alone?
As for the international repercussions, we can guess about some of them, others we are waiting to see. Trump isn't exactly predictable. On Ukraine, Moscow's views will be taken into account more in Washington, and this is dramatic for the Ukrainians and all the countries threatened by Russian imperialism.
On China, a trade war is looming and the strategic competition will be tough. With induced effects for the Old Continent. Will Donald Trump fuel divisions between Europeans? Will he trade support for Giorgia Meloni's parmesan (Elon Musk fan) for a tax cut against Emmanuel Macron's Camembert or Olaf Scholz's cars? On one point, Europeans will be united in the spirit of Trump: they must pay more, much more, for their security.
As for Elon Musk's role in the new American government, it raises a thousand questions. Space competition, telecommunications, disinformation from social networks, unbridled artificial intelligence. On all these themes, American choices will condition ours, even more than before. It is up to us to put forward an alternative model.
