STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN / AFP
Marine Le Pen photographed at the Paris court on November 5 (illustration)
POLITICS – Wednesday November 9, 2016. The results of the American presidential election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have not yet been consolidated and Marine Le Pen does not hide her enthusiasm. “ Congratulations to the new President of the United States Donald Trump and the free American people! », she published on Twitter, accompanying this message with her initials, just to emphasize that it was she who tweeted in person.
Eight years (and the fiasco of 2020) later, the enthusiasm is no longer the same. On the same social network, the president of the RN group in the National Assembly is more measured. “ The Americans freely chose the president they choseshe writes, before using an agreed diplomatic vocabulary. This new political era which is opening must contribute to the strengthening of bilateral relations and the pursuit of dialogue and constructive cooperation on the international scene. »
A change of tone which illustrates as much his strong desire for normalization as a wish to keep the whimsical American president at bay.
The situation has changed
However, at the National Rally, others have difficulty containing their joy. In her own party, as with her ally Eric Ciotti, it is a real feeling of victory by proxy which is expressed and which automatically brings the far-right leader closer to her American national-populist counterpart. After all, hasn't the billionaire succeeded in shattering a glass ceiling, by making a comeback under the noses of the media? hostiles » while defending a fiercely xenophobic policy close to what the Lepéniste party proposes in France?
« Donald Trump is to America what Marine Le Pen is to France », ignited, the day before the victory of the billionaire, Pascal Praud on CNews. Except that, if Kamala Harris' heartthrob has long served as a model for the Pas-de-Calais MP who, let us remember, had laid siege in front of Trump Tower in 2017 in the hope of receiving (in vain) the anointing the billionaire, the situation has changed. The erratic management of the health crisis in the United States coupled with the invasion of the Capitol (which led Marine Le Pen in 2020 to painfully admit the defeat of the Republican) led the president of the RN group to the Assembly, in quest for respectability in France, to gradually distance himself from the billionaire.
At least in the speech, since his European allies, from Matteo Salvini in Italy to Viktor Orban in Hungary, more warmly welcome the billionaire's return to the White House. A cautious position fully assumed by Marine Le Pen's special advisor, Philippe Olivier. “ If he wins, he risks taking retaliatory measures on French wine or Cognac. We will look smart to our winegrowers if we supported them… », he explained to Point before the vote.
A survey published at the end of October by Elabe for BFMTV also had something to call for action for those who want to “ normalize “. According to this study, 64% of French people wanted a victory for Kamala Harris, compared to 13% for Donald Trump. More interesting, only 30% of RN voters wanted to see him return to the White House (compared to 46% for his Democratic rival). “ National Rally voters have, at lower levels, a better image of Kamala Harris than of Donald Trump; they see her in particular as a more sympathetic personality (56% vs. 16%) and Donald Trump as more arrogant (64% vs. 14%). %) and worrying (58% vs. 14%) “, Elabe further underlined.
“It’s bad for Marine”
Data which allows us to understand why the leader of the RN seems to refrain from jubilantly too ostentatiously. “ Politically, Donald Trump's victory is bad for Marine. Because the anti-Trump propaganda will reflect on her. As was the case in 2017 ”, blows squarely at HuffPost a familiar with the RN. Especially since the victory of the real estate magnate marks the success of a strategy which is opposed to that of the leaders of the French extreme right.
When the RN general staff seeks to normalize itself, and to get rid of the trappings of populism, Donald Trump led an extreme campaign, far from the traditional media and not shying away from any excess… to the point of miming obscene gestures in meetings . “ Marine Le Pen herself has been trying for several years not to engage in politics like that, precisely by taking care of her language, by hunting down bad apples, by normalizing her comments towards a certain number of people. of minorities », Underlines to AFP the political scientist specializing in the extreme right, Jean-Yves Camus, who adds: “ there may be internal jubilation “the wokists have been defeated, the racialized candidate has been defeated” but the RN has nothing to gain by showing it because the image of Donald Trump in France is very bad ».
In these circumstances, it is difficult to imagine how Marine Le Pen could directly benefit from the victory of a man who, until 2027, will have more than once the opportunity to shock French public opinion, by defending positions very close to the RN and arousing the admiration of several elected Lepénistes or allies of Marine Le Pen. On this subject, how will the moderate right-wing electorate she covets react when images of “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants (men, women and children) promised by Donald Trump (and if necessary with the help of the army) will cross the Atlantic? How will the female electorate, with whom the RN made progress during the last elections, observe the probable setbacks on abortion? So many unknowns which will undoubtedly plague the RN until 2027.
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