OWe will run out of champagne in the Kremlin and we will run out of ammunition in the trenches of Donbass. The return of Donald Trump to the White House is excellent news for Vladimir Putin. It does not bode well for Ukraine's chances of negotiating in a good position against Russia. Trump II also deals a blow to transatlantic solidarity: this concept is indifferent to the Republican. His victory in the November 5 election isolates Europeans. It places them before a historic responsibility: relying on their forces to ensure their defense against Russian expansionism.
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A strategic upheaval is underway. It was perhaps inevitable, it is accelerated by the vote of the Americans. General de Gaulle's prophecy comes true: one day, the United States will leave the Old Continent. He must become an adult, unless he gives in on what is dear to him – inviolability of borders, non-use of force, support for emerging liberal democracies. An America is leaving, a strategic Europe must be born. If the European Union (EU) fails to respond to this call, it will suffer a world dominated by power blocs which have only one rule in relations between States: the balance of power.
For now, Vladimir Putin is enjoying great political success in the war of aggression he is waging against Ukraine. The man who is returning to the presidency of the United States has promised to suspend military and civilian aid from Washington to kyiv. There's no reason not to take it seriously. “Plus a cent” for Ukraine, swore Trump, who claims to end the fighting “in twenty-four hours”. We know how. A ceasefire on current lines will leave 20% to 25% of the country in Russian hands.
Zone d’influence
Trump accepts the Russian diktat of a Ukraine forced into a form of strategic neutrality: no membership in NATO, or a NATO without substance; there is no question for the United States of deploying a single soldier in Ukraine to guarantee the defense of the ceasefire line. It will be “the affair of Europeans »says Trumpist America. For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Trump plan looks like a surrender.
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Trump underestimates, or does not understand, Putin's real war goals, those that Russia has proclaimed since February 2022. The Kremlin wants a government in kyiv that is under its control and, by all means, will pursue a policy of destabilization of Ukraine, but also of Georgia and Moldova, in order to re-establish the zone of influence that Russia claims over its near abroad (the Belarusian tyrant Alexander Lukashenko already being in charge).
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