In the United States, among the traditions of election days, exit polls feature prominently, which make it possible to know the choice of voters and to cross-reference it with their profile (age, gender, ethnicity, socio-professional level, motivations). …). While the Americans have chosen to largely re-elect Donald Trump, the study carried out by the Edison Research institute among 100,000 people leaving the polling stations provides information on who contributed to the election of the Republican candidate and to the defeat of Kamala Harris.
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Men for Trump, women for Harris
Published by the Washington Post the study shows, depending on the criteria, sometimes clear differences between the Trump electorate and the Harris electorate. It uses numerous socio-demographic criteria, and is also interested in variations from one state to another.
The scores aggregated at the federal level (all states) already give interesting indications on the characteristics of the Democratic or Republican vote in the 2024 elections.
The first lesson is that men voted mainly for Donald Trump (54% for Trump against 44% for Harris) and that women voted mainly for Kamala Harris, in exactly the opposite proportions: 54% for Harris against 44% for Trump. .
This gap was expected in the polls, and the “gender gap” (gap in voting intention between men and women in English) had never been so deep. Kamala Harris' feminist speech resonated with the female electorate, but did not convince the male electorate. In 2020, Joe Biden obtained 57% of the female vote, 3 points more than Kamala Harris.
Donald Trump had made sure to soften his speech towards women, and gained 2 points in the female electorate compared to 2020.
45-64 year olds got Trump elected
Voting by age group also shows significant differences. Kamala Harris leads among 18-29 year olds and 30-44 year olds, but Donald Trump leads among 45-64 year olds, who represent more than a third of voters. Those over 65 are shared between the two candidates, with a very slight advantage for Kamala Harris (50 against 49%).
Donald Trump's score of 42% among 18-29 year olds should be highlighted: this is an increase of 6 points compared to the same Edison Research survey from 2020. The Republican candidate has therefore made strong progress among young people.
The weight of the white electorate
Whites are the only ethnic group placing the Republican candidate in the lead, at 55%, compared to 43% for the Democratic candidate. But since he represents 71% of the voters, this swings the election.
Among non-whites, the balance of power is 65% for Kamala Harris and 32% for Donald Trump.
The idea that Donald Trump is elected predominantly by white men is not contradicted by this data. But it is worth noting the rise of the Republican (and the fall of the Democratic vote) in the Hispanic/Latino vote. With 45% of the Hispanic vote, compared to 32% in 2020, Donald Trump progressed by 13 points in this electorate. Despite controversial remarks about Puerto Rico at the end of October…
The Catholic vote for Trump
Religion has a strong influence on voting. 56% of Catholics and 62% of Protestants and other Christians voted for Donald Trump. This year, Donald Trump succeeded in reversing the Catholic vote, which had gone mainly to the Democrats in 2020 (55% for Joe Biden).
Jews voted the most for Kamala Harris (79%), followed by atheists at 72% and other religions at 60%.
Balance on income
Income is not the most marked element. Households earning more than $100,000 a year vote slightly more for Harris (53%), while lower income brackets show slightly more support for Trump (49%).
This balancing is a change compared to 2020, where Joe Biden was in the majority (56%) in households earning less than $100,000 per year, and Donald Trump was in the majority (54%) for those earning more than $100,000 per year.
Voting according to level of study is in line with customs, with an advantage for Democrats among higher education graduates, and equality elsewhere.
Cities, suburbs and countryside
60% of voters in big cities voted for Harris, 48% in the suburbs and 36% in small towns and countryside. This year, Trump gained voters in all territories compared to 2020, and particularly in the suburbs. He increased his score by four percentage points in big cities and seven points in the suburbs.
Beyond the typologies of votes, these exit polls show how Donald Trump has progressed in certain population categories compared to 2020: young people, Hispanics/Latinos, Catholics.
Conversely, Kamala Harris and the Democrats did not succeed in retaining these reservoirs of votes, nor winning new ones.
