“Something will change” and kyiv is worried: what impact will the election of Donald Trump have on the war in Ukraine?

In recent months, the billionaire has insisted that he can impose peace in Ukraine by “24 hours”without ever explaining how, but decrying the extent of the aid paid to kyiv.

Walking in the cold streets of the Ukrainian capital, Natalia Pitchaktchi, a fifty-year-old displaced from the city of Mariupol, occupied by the Russians since spring 2022, is worried. “I feel a kind of anxiety, because I don’t know what to expect”she explains to AFP, her hands stuffed in her pockets. “It’s worrying.”

“Something will change, there will be no more support” American, Natalia continues, referring to the tens of billions of dollars in military and financial aid that Washington and NATO members have provided since the start of the war in 2022, allowing kyiv to continue fighting against a well-established invader. more powerful.

Here, there is fear that the new president of the United States could impose a peace plan largely favorable to Russia. According to Western media, Mr. Trump would like to demilitarize but leave the area currently occupied by Moscow, or 20% of Ukrainian territory, under de facto Russian control. He would also be in favor of kyiv renouncing joining NATO, as demanded by the Kremlin.

“Peace through strength”

However, this goes against the “victory plan” wanted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the most important points of which are, however, an official invitation to join NATO, as well as the strengthening of military aid to block the Ukrainian sky from attacks by Moscow and strike deep on the ground Russian.

And kyiv still demands respect for its territorial integrity, excluding any concession of its territory, which therefore seems to contradict some of the ideas of the American billionaire.

By congratulating Donald Trump on his “impressive victory”President Zelensky nevertheless said he hoped that this result would help Ukraine obtain “a just peace”. “I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach to global affairs”he wrote on X.

At the end of October, a senior official from the Ukrainian presidency wanted to be reassuring to AFP, judging “very good” the Zelensky-Trump meeting in September in New York. The Ukrainian president also described Wednesday as “formidable” their date then.

A less defeatist position shared by Tetiana Podleska, a computer scientist interviewed by AFP in the streets of kyiv. “I don’t think it (this result, editor’s note) will change much”she said laconicly. “It won’t change for the better, that’s for sure.”she concedes, “but for the worst, it’s unlikely.”

Olga Prikhodko, a young teacher in her thirties, also interviewed in the Ukrainian capital, believes that the American election should lead Ukraine to “reflect on what happens next” to ensure a victory against Russia “because our lives, the future of our country are in our hands.”

The fact remains that the Ukrainian forces continue to retreat, Russia, despite significant losses, maintaining its superiority in men and weapons. And now, the West and kyiv are seeing North Korean reinforcements arrive for the Russian army.

The Russian army took some 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in October, a record since the first weeks of the conflict in March 2022, according to an AFP analysis of data from the American Institute for the Study of War ( ISW).

Olga therefore hopes that Ukraine's allies will keep their promises to support the country until victory, even if the Ukrainian authorities continue to denounce the timidity of Western responses to Russian escalation. “I fear that support will wane, but I hope that reason and democratic principles will prevail in the world”she explained to AFP.

Igor Stryjeous, a worker at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant, is also “worried”seeing in Trump a man potentially “dangerous” for Ukraine. His victory “worry everyone”he said, “not only Ukraine, but the whole world”.