Seen from Beijing, the American choice is between plague and cholera

There is not a corner of the world that is not paying attention to the outcome of the American election today. In Beijing, we pretend not to be interested: China now embodies the “other” superpower, and does not want to appear to make its fate depend on a foreign vote. Like modest Europeans, one might add…

However, debates are intense in China, on social networks and the few authorized spaces, to know whether Trump or Harris would be better for China. Official Chinese commentators are fatalistic: hitting on China is the only point of consensus between Republicans and Democrats in the United States. The result will therefore not make much difference: seen from Beijing, it is choosing between the plague and cholera.

The future of relations between the two giants

This is not fundamentally false: we have seen Joe Biden continue and amplify the policy of containing China started by Donald Trump during his only mandate. However, things are not that simple. The oppositions are in fact not as clear-cut as on Ukraine or on the relationship with Putin. But the diametrically divergent styles of the two candidates mark so many nuances that can count when it comes to defining the future relationship between the two great rivals of the 21st century.

Seen from Beijing, Kamala Harris embodies continuity and predictability, that is to say a relationship of intense competition and cordon santé around China's access to Western technology. Just a few days ago, the White House released a report on artificial intelligence making clear that we must prevent China from overtaking the United States in this area.

Donald Trump, for his part, announced the color, with massive customs duties on Chinese products, which could have serious consequences for a Chinese economy which is struggling to take off again. But at the same time, Beijing considers it “pragmatic”, a more elegant word than transactional, therefore open to “deals”, its specialty.

Support for Taiwan

The Chinese were very interested in Donald Trump's little words about Taiwan. The former president repeatedly accused the island claimed by Beijing of having, quote, “stolen semiconductors” from the United States. Apart from the fact that it is false, it is above all revealing of Trump's approach, which is totally devoid of convictions. If Taiwan stole the semiconductors, will the United States send its army to defend this democratic island in the event of a Chinese attack?

This ambiguity has serious consequences for the defense of the island. Although former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, whom I met recently in Paris, believes that support for Taiwan in Congress is strong and bipartisan enough to overcome personality differences.

However, there is a school of thought in China that would prefer a Trump victory, believing that he will be more open to “deals”. A Chinese businessman even told me that Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will be able to impress Donald Trump, who respects “strong men”. As we can see, analyzes can sometimes take circuitous routes, in Beijing as elsewhere.