Wisconsin, with its ten “electors”, is a centerpiece of what we usually call the “blue wall”, this alignment of states (eighteen in total) which, by all voting for Democratic candidate since 1992, have systematically assured him victory in the presidential election – George W. Bush was the only one, in 2000 and 2004, to succeed in getting around this blue wall. It was the defection of three of its elements – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – which allowed Donald Trump to win in 2016. In the case of Wisconsin, it was necessary to go back, before that, to Ronald Reagan to record the victory of a Republican.
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A state that makes presidents
Wisconsin has also become a trend indicator. In the last four presidential elections, whoever won in Wisconsin also got the keys to the White House. The outcome has, however, become more uncertain than before. Of the last six presidential elections in Wisconsin, four were won by a margin of less than 1% of the vote. Donald Trump won with a margin of 22,750 votes, and Joe Biden with 20,680 (out of more than three million votes cast). Only Barack Obama managed to outrun John McCain and Mitt Romney.
Under these conditions, every voter counts. Hillary Clinton made a fatal mistake in assuming that Wisconsin was hers and that there was no need to campaign there – she was never seen there once. This year, the candidates go there and come back. The Republican Party strategically organized its National Convention, to inaugurate Donald Trump in July, in Milwaukee, the economic capital and largest city in the state. The former President also made several visits to Wisconsin, like Joe Biden first, then Kamala Harris. The small Eau Claire airport, north of LaCrosse, in the 3rd District, has probably never seen presidential or vice-presidential candidates pass through so often.
The road to the White House
“The road to the White House goes through Wisconsin,” logically declared Kamala Harris during one of her trips to the “Badger State”. It also passes through its 3rd District. Undoubtedly, by filling up with votes in Milwaukee, in Madison, the capital, and in other cities, the Democratic candidate can hope to win without having to impose herself in this district. However, garnering as many votes as possible would certainly protect it from the unpleasant surprises that Wisconsin seems to be becoming accustomed to.
This is the same reasoning used by Senator Tammy Baldwin, who is seeking a third term against Republican Eric Hovde, a Californian businessman and banker now based in Wisconsin. The polls gave the Democrat a comfortable lead, but the gap has narrowed spectacularly in recent weeks, leaving her with only a slim 1% advantage over Hovde, who now swears by Trump. Baldwin therefore faces the most difficult re-election of his career and his possible defeat could simply ruin the Democratic Party’s hopes of retaining control of the Senate.
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Dislodging a rioter from the Capitol
The 3rd District is finally of capital importance in determining the next majority in the House. It is one of the thirty-one electoral districts that the Democrats are targeting as a priority to reconquer it. His current deputy is Derrick Van Orden, a former diver with the elite Navy Seals. After graduating from a private online university, he became an actor and café owner once he retired, before entering politics. Elected in 2022 after a vain attempt two years earlier, he is one of the most vocal supporters of Donald Trump. He was among the attackers of the Capitol on January 6, 2021…
The district has long had a tradition of electing moderate Republicans. Van Orden’s predecessor, Ron Kind, who served for twenty-six years, was one of only three Democrats elected there during the 20th century. Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack Obama nevertheless each won the district in the presidential election, but it was Donald Trump who won the issue in 2016 as in 2020. The Democrats invested heavily to reverse the trend and guarantee the victory of their House candidate, Rebecca Cooke, a 36-year-old entrepreneur and former political activist in Washington. For the LaCrosse Democrats, whose name comes from a game played by the Dakota Indians with a stick shaped like an Episcopal crosier, this would be a famous winning move.
