Follow the results of the 2024 American presidential election live all night long! The first figures are already coming in, with exit polls, such as the “chances of winning” of Trump or Harris.
20:55 – Another probabilistic model gives close but favorable results for Trump
The 25,000 simulations carried out by another reference site, 270towin, this Tuesday, November 5, provide enlightening information on the 2024 American elections: Donald Trump's chances are estimated at 50.8%, those of Kamala Harris at 48.8 % This evening. On this probabilistic model, we must still be careful: the simulations are carried out on a general compilation of polls across the 50 states, before the vote has taken place. Biases in the poll panels, in particular the fact that the respondents are not all representative of the voters – especially among Trump supporters – still make this data fragile. But it gives a trend: it will be tight.
20:46 – Trump clearly ahead in the “probabilities of victory”
According to the serious results projection site DecisioDesk, Donald Trump's victory is significantly more likely at this stage, with a 60.6% chance of victory. Kamala Harris now has only a 39.4% chance of victory. This probabilistic model is essentially based on the polls carried out so far on the first votes and the first exit polls. The model is serious, but at this stage, the data is still fragile, since the polls are still not very representative and it is especially necessary to have the first results in the swing states to have robust projection elements, even for a model of this type .
8:05 p.m. – Harris winning in 503 out of 495 simulations
The results of the 2024 US elections are likely to be as close as expected: the reference site 538.com, which develops prediction models by integrating all the most recent poll data, hour by hour, gives the following results: on an average of 1000 probable simulations, 503 give Kamala Harris winning, 495 give Donald Trump winning, 2 gives a perfect equality in the number of electoral votes won. This means that predictions are still very difficult to establish at this stage, even if these first figures are enlightening.
19:45 – Trump already has a word on the results, without really saying what he will do if he loses
Donald Trump will watch the election results with a small group of family and friends at his home in the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, several close sources told CNN. The former president was also interviewed by the news channel, which asked him if he planned to declare himself the winner that evening, although the figures are not final. He didn't answer. Journalists also asked him if he was thinking of asking his supporters not to be violent in the event of defeat, he replied: “I don't need to tell them that there will be no violence. Of course there won't be violence. My supporters are not violent people. I don't need to tell them that, and I certainly don't want violence, but I certainly don't need it. to tell them. They are great people. They are people who don't believe in violence. Unlike you, you believe in violence!
19:02 – 54% chance of winning for Trump
While the latest polls of the American presidential election will be published in 5 hours, the latest ones warn of Decision Desk HQ – American pollster – estimate that Donald Trump has a 54% chance of winning in this American presidential election. For her part, Kamala Harris would have a 46% chance of accessing the White House. A dynamic favorable to the Republican which can still evolve.
18:54 – Georgia optimistic for results to be released the same evening as the election
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said he was optimistic about the release of his state's results on the evening of the election. With more than 4 million early votes already cast and absentee ballots received and accepted, all must be uploaded and recorded no later than one hour after polls close.
“You'll probably get 99 percent of that, so you'll have a good idea of what the race is like,” he says. Several small counties in Georgia try to finish before 10 or 10:30 p.m. at the latest, “but by the end of the night, you will have all these results,” he assures.
18:46 – How to explain such an uncertain outcome in Nevada?
In this key state, the Republican candidate has only a short lead over his Democratic rival. Donald Trump placed himself at the top of the polls, particularly in the final days of the campaign, and was less than a point ahead – only 0.6 points – according to the poll average calculated by RealClear Politics and the compilation of surveys carried out by 270towin.
Results that are within the margin of error. The outcome of the election in Nevada can therefore change until the last moment and tip the vote to one side or the other. Despite the slight advantage in favor of the Democratic camp observed during the last elections, disparities are felt within Nevada. While Las Vegas is generally labeled Democratic, rural areas tend to be Republican. Enough to make the outcome of the election in this territory even more uncertain.
18:38 – What will make the difference in Wisconsin
A few hours before the American presidential election, there is nothing to say which of the two candidates will win in Wisconsin. The compilation of the latest polls from 270towin gives the Democratic candidate a very slight lead of 1.1 points. Kamala Harris benefits from 48.8% of voting intentions, neck and neck with the former American real estate mogul: 47.7%, according to data from November 4.
The latest studies compiled by the site FiveThirtyEight estimate an almost similar lead for Kamala Harris: 48.3% against 47.3% for Donald Trump. Electoral trends can still evolve, but the match should be tense until the end to try to win the 10 electoral votes in Wisconsin. The vote could actually swing depending on the vote of the 180,000 unregistered Latino voters. The candidate who manages to convince them should win in this state and take one more step towards the White House.
18:23 – Unofficial results known before Wednesday noon in Michigan
Michigan officials appear optimistic that the state will have final unofficial results from Tuesday's election by midday Wednesday, or even sooner, CNN says. “This puts us in an extremely good position to handle late ballots that are returned Tuesday or today,” said the Michigan Secretary of State. This is the first time Michigan has allowed pre-processing of mail-in ballots during a general election, and it's clearly a success.
17:46 – Kamala Harris in difficulty in the Swing states
Unlike her competitor, Kamala Harris could lose the American presidential election in the swing states. These pivotal states in the election currently give a fairly clear advantage to the former President of the USA. Indeed, Donald Trump is in the lead in five of them, out of seven, according to Real Clear Politics. The Democrat is only in the lead in Wisconsin (48.6% against 48.2%), and in Michigan (48.3% against 47.8%). In all other Swing states, the Republican is the winner.
4:49 p.m. – The first numbers in Florida are out
In Florida, the distribution of the vote by political affiliation has been revealed. For now, out of just over 9 million voters, 43.4% of votes come from the Republican Party, and 32.4% from Democratic supporters, according to Vote Hub. At the same time, no less than 21.8% of the votes came from American citizens not affiliated with a political party. In the polls, and according to 270towin, Florida, which can be compared to the 8th Swing state of this 2024 American presidential election, is surely the one in which the suspense is the least present. Indeed, Donald Trump is credited with 51.1% of voting intentions, quite far ahead of Kamala Harris (44.9%), as of November 4, 2024.
16:27 – What chances of winning for Trump in the “Swing states”?
If Donald Trump is slightly ahead of his Democratic competitor nationally, the Republican has taken the lead in 5 swing states out of 7, these key and undecided states in the American presidential election which will decide the outcome of the vote. According to the estimates of 270towin, the former president of the USA has a 52% chance of winning in Pennsylvania, 65% in North Carolina, 63.5% in Georgia, 52.3% in Nevada and 69.3% in Arizona . In Wisconsin and Michigan, it is Kamala Harris who has a greater chance of winning.
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1853606150081818722?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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The graph below compiles the results of the largest national polls, in voting intentions, carried out on the American presidential elections. Since her declaration of candidacy, Kamala Harris had an advantage which has melted since the second half of October. Here are the latest polls.
The state-by-state polls are undoubtedly the most relevant to have a vision of the most probable results of this American presidential election. Here is the map from the reference site “270 to win”, which gave projections of Democratic and Republican votes this Wednesday, November 5:
In around ten states, the balance of power is more nuanced, these “Swing States” are therefore those which will swing the presidential election, because the one who wins the election there generally wins at the national level. Here are the voting intentions in the most important Swing States, according to the Real Clear Politics compilation:
The American electoral system is complex. It is based on an indirect system where citizens do not elect their president directly, but electors who then meet to choose the head of state. This “electoral college” has 538 members, corresponding to the total number of senators and representatives in Congress, as well as three electors for the District of Columbia. Each state has a certain number of electors, allocated according to the size of its population.
In presidential elections, which take place every four years, citizens vote at the beginning of November. The candidate who wins the majority of votes in a state, according to the “winner-takes-all” rule, obtains all the electors of that state, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, which distribute their voters proportionally. The candidate having received at least 270 voters wins the presidential election.
