While initial voter data gives Kamala Harris hope, Trump predicts an inevitable landslide victory and sows doubts about the electoral system. It’s almost the same script as 2020.
This year too, Donald Trump is taking precautionary measures to suggest that the election may have been manipulated.
Chip Somodevilla / Imago
In the polls it is undecided. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are also virtually neck and neck in the seven swing states – Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Nevertheless, the Republican presidential candidate, conservative media and influencers are giving their audience the feeling that there can only be one clear winner on November 5th: Donald Trump.
Last week, Trump even campaigned in New Mexico. The state is considered a safe stronghold for the Democrats. Harris leads the polls there by an average of almost 7 percentage points. But Trump told his cheering supporters: “Your votes are being manipulated. We can win New Mexico.” Without fraud, he could also win in other Democratic-dominated states: “If God counted the votes, we would win in California.”
A big gender gap in the early vote
“We are by far in the lead,” Trump repeats again and again. And in Arizona last week he said: “The only thing that can stop us is fraud.” In Pennsylvania on Sunday, he said: “They’re working hard to steal this damn thing.” Fake ballot papers and forms have already been found in one constituency.
On the one hand, Trump and his campaign advisors base their confidence on the latest survey results. “Trump’s position nationally and in every swing state is significantly better than four years ago,” says an internal analysis by his campaign team. Back in 2020, Biden was leading in the polls by over 8 percentage points, but in the end the Democrat narrowly won the election. Trump is obviously betting that pollsters will underestimate him again.
On the other hand, Republican observers base their optimism on the data on the ballot papers that have already been received. Over 76 million Americans have already cast their vote – either by mail or in person at a polling station. The figures for the so-called “early vote” show that significantly more Republicans are now voting before election day than four years ago. At that time, Trump advised his supporters against postal voting because it was vulnerable to fraud. That may have cost him votes. He and his party are now calling for people to vote as early as possible. And many seem to be heeding the call. Based on this data, billionaire and Trump supporter Elon Musk recently predicted a “devastating victory” for the Republican.
However, Democratic “data guru” Tom Bonier draws completely different conclusions from the early voter data. In the swing state of Pennsylvania, for example, four years ago 48 percent of current early Republican voters voted on election day and 44 percent voted by postal vote. This suggests that the Republicans were hardly able to mobilize new groups of voters for the “early vote”. This is therefore simply a shift of the same votes from election day to the “early vote”.
The high proportion of women also seems to be positive for Harris. In the swing states, significantly more women than men voted by election day: around 55 to 45 percent. This is roughly the same gender gap as four years ago. But Bonier told USA Today: “Democratic women seem to be more determined. Even though the Republican share of the vote is higher, this gender gap remains.”
Harris should also like a new poll in rural Iowa. Trump won this state in 2016 and 2020. But the survey conducted by renowned pollster Ann Selzer now sees Harris in the lead 47 percent to 44 percent. Above all, non-partisan women are ensuring the rise of democrats. Fully 57 percent of them now support Harris, only 29 percent want to vote for Trump.
Speculation about a “little secret”
It may be that the polls are underestimating Trump again this year. In contrast to the election four years ago, however, two major issues weigh on him: on the one hand, his attempt to overturn the 2020 election results; on the other hand, his shared responsibility for the Supreme Court’s end to the national right to abortion in June 2022. It could also be that Harris will be underestimated by pollsters this year because an unexpected number of moderate conservatives could also vote for the Democrat.
Concerned Democrats therefore see Trump’s bombastic predictions of an overwhelming victory as an attempt to lay the foundation for another “coup attempt” against the election results should he lose. According to the New York Times, some of his most influential advisors believe that he could claim victory again this year before all the votes are counted.
Several factors speak against a repeat of the Capitol storm. In particular, Trump is now not in the White House and cannot use the power of the office to overturn the election results. Nevertheless, the Republican presidential candidate caused a stir when he recently spoke of a “little secret” that he shared with House Speaker Mike Johnson. This secret will have a big impact, said Trump.
Since then, the media has speculated about whether Trump and Johnson are up to something. However, as chairman of the large parliamentary chamber, Johnson does not play a decisive role in the final certification of the election results, and he may no longer be speaker at all if the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives. At the same time, Trump’s loud allegations of fraud seem to be a clear sign that he will not simply accept an election defeat. Especially since there is more at stake for him personally than in 2020. If Harris wins, then special prosecutor Jack Smith will also remain in office. His charges over the Capitol storm and the embezzlement of intelligence documents could result in prison time for Trump. How the former president would proceed is difficult to predict. But his lies could again – at least sporadically – result in violence from his angry followers.
