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First estimates around 1 a.m. in France?
But when will the results of this 2024 American presidential election be announced? Concretely, the first estimates will begin to fall as soon as polling stations close on the East Coast around 7 p.m. on Tuesday, local time (i.e. 1 a.m. on Wednesday, in France). A definitive result could come at the very end of the evening across the Atlantic, i.e. early Wednesday morning in France.
However, given the latest polls which put the two finalists in a tight spot, the results of the presidential election may not be immediately known the same evening. The counting process, including mail-in votes and electronic ballots, could last hours or even days in some states. This delay in announcing the winner is accentuated in key states where the vote gap is small, making the count decisive. A context which can prolong the suspense to determine who will reach the threshold of 270 electors required (i.e. half plus one of the 538 electors elected) to win the race for the White House.
Worse, if one of the candidates contests the results in one or more states, as Donald Trump did in 2020, this could further delay the outcome of the election. Resorting to legal action or recounts can thus prolong the period of uncertainty over the identity of the elected president.
2020: Biden winner 4 days later
In 2020Joe Biden, was declared the winner on November 7, four days after election day, November 3. The Covid-19 pandemic had a major impact on the conduct of the election, with a record number of early and postal votes. The counting of these ballots, often more complex and lengthy, was particularly crucial in key states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, where the margins were minimal. A final result that Donald Trump will refuse to accept, until the terrible assault on the Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2021.
Between 2008 and 2016, the outcome of the presidential election was clearer and faster. During the November 8 election 2016Donald Trump was declared the winner the same night against Hillary Clinton, in part thanks to significant margins in several decisive states. Thus, the media projections were concrete from the morning of November 9. November 6 2012Barack Obama was also declared re-elected the same evening (against Mitt Romney), shortly after 11 p.m. Eastern time. Obama won key states early in the night, bringing the suspense to a close quickly. Same thing during the first election of Barack Obama in 2008 (against John McCain), declared winner before midnight.
2000: 36 days of waiting, the famous recount in Florida
The American presidential election 2000 is the one that was marked by the famous recount in Florida. On November 7, 2000, as the country waited to know who the next president would be, the election result shifted to the results of Florida, a crucial state for the electoral count. The gap between George W. Bush and Al Gore was extremely close, with only a few hundred votes separating the two candidates. This triggered an automatic recount and multiple controversies and legal challenges.
