Behind the Donald Trump duel

UNITED STATES – The Kamala Harris-Donald Trump duel will not be the only election that will count this Tuesday, November 5. While the Republican majority in the House of Representatives only holds a few seats, each local vote is important. One, in particular, could tip the lower house to the Democratic side. Its particularity? It takes place in a traditionally scarlet red state: Alabama.

“I have a lot of hopes for this election, more than for the presidential election”says Dennis McFarland, a novelist based in Mobile, in the southern part of the state, who is campaigning for the local Democratic candidate, Shomari Figures.

If the Alabama native, who himself recognizes “that here, we are culturally republicans and we have always been republicans”begins to hope, it is because the constituency where Shomari Figures is running (the second in the state) has recently experienced a small revolution.

Gerrymandering

To fully understand what happened in this poor region of the country, you need to be familiar with an electoral practice that is deeply rooted in the United States, “gerrymandering.” The principle? Manipulating electoral district boundaries to favor one party. For example, a city center with a Democratic majority will be divided into several pieces, and each attached to a larger suburban area where the Republican vote dominates.

This electoral gerrymandering – practiced since the beginnings of the American republic since it owes its name to Elbridge Gerry, one of the founding fathers – has served the interests of both parties, but it is the Republicans of the South and the Midwest who are the most fond of, in particular to stifle the black vote, traditionally Democratic. According to calculations by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, in these elections, “gerrymandering” should advantage Republicans in 16 congressional districts, which would not have leaned their way with fairer redistricting.

An unexpected victory

Alabama's Second Congressional District could have been one of them without the efforts of activists who took the southern state to court for a more representative electoral map. Shalela Dowdy, a black activist from Mobile who was one of the plaintiffs, summarized in 2023 with the New York Times : “I want myself and my community to have a seat at the table, rather than being on the menu. » An important issue in this former slave state, which long refused desegregation.

The case ended up before the United States Supreme Court, which has had a conservative majority for several years. It was therefore a surprise to everyone when the plaintiffs won their case, the judges recognizing a violation of the law against racial discrimination in the exercise of the right to vote and requiring a new redistricting.

The new district corresponds to Alabama's Black Belt, an area encompassing two of America's largest majority-black cities, Mobile and Montgomery. A highly symbolic region, since the second city is known as one of the birthplaces of the American civil rights movement: it is here that Rosa Parks was arrested in 1955 after her famous act of rebellion.

Two opposing political philosophies

To run for the Second District seat, Democrats nominated Shomari Figures, a charismatic candidate from a prominent local black political family who himself worked for Barack Obama's campaign and served in the Justice Department. “He’s a potential future president, if you ask me”enthuses Dennis McFarland, who sees in these elections a “direct reflection of the national vote”with two opposing political philosophies.

Because Shomari Figures' opponent is a pure product of Trumpism: Caroleene Dobson, daughter of a very rich local farmer, rodeo fan, and incidentally a Harvard graduate. His obsessions? Immigration (she blames Latino immigrants for the US opioid crisis), guns, “protection of the sacred bonds of marriage between a man and a woman” et “the defense of unborn children” (translate: she is anti-abortion).

“There was a time when it was enough for a candidate to say “I’m a conservative!” in his campaign clip to get elected in Alabamasays Dennis McFarland. Today, you just have to say “I’m on Trump’s side!” That’s how our two local senators got elected and that’s Caroleene Dobson’s strategy. »

Nothing is won

Despite the legal victory before the Supreme Court, victory at the ballot box is not guaranteed for the Democrats. Both parties are well aware of this since they have each invested in their foal: Shomari Figures is sponsored by the program « red to blue » of the left party, while Caroleene Dobson is part of the list of « young guns » Republicans. If Donald Trump's party still thinks it has a chance of winning, it is because the vast majority of the local white vote is with it and previous elections in the region have been marked by strong abstention within the black community. .

“There is very high poverty in this part of the country. And with poverty comes the absence of hope and the feeling of having no voice. There is this idea of ​​“what’s the point? Nothing I do is going to change anything.”explains Dennis McFarland. So, for those like him campaigning for Shomari Figures, the main thing now is to mobilize voters and ensure that they have the means to vote. This involves going door to door, telephone campaigns, but also by providing means of transport to the polls for those who do not have a car on D-Day.

With in mind, the hope of seeing this constituency swing to the blue side, but also a fear: that legal efforts for more equitable representation will not bear fruit. “What we're hearing right now is that if Shomari Figures loses, those who are against fairer electoral redistricting will have an argument to go back and say 'see, there's no point.' explains Dennis McFarland. It is also to avoid this that so many people are involved in this campaign. »

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