If it is difficult to predict the results of the municipal elections given the local aspect of this election, it is interesting to observe the major trends on the Belgian political scene. Here is what an Ipsos-Le Soir-RTL Info-Het Laatste Nieuws-VTM poll revealed to us at the end of September.
The results of a latest survey in Wallonia
In Wallonia, the MR is well ahead in voting intentions. Confirming its victory of June 9 (even if it is in slight decline), the party of Georges-Louis Bouchez wins 26.6% in the latest Ipsos-Le Soir-RTL-Het Laatste Nieuws-VTM Nieuws poll. The Liberals are followed by their partner in the Walloon government, Les Engagés. Maxime Prévot’s party even recorded a better score in this survey than in the June election, going from 20% to 22.6%. In third place, the PS has 21.7% of voting intentions (-0.3% compared to the previous elections).
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The results of a latest survey in Brussels
In Brussels, it is also the liberals who occupy first place in the ranking (22.6%). But their predominance is less significant, since Paul Magnette’s PS totals 20.4% of voting intentions. In third place, the PTB received 15.4% of voting intentions. Far behind are the ecologists (9.8%), Les Engagés (8.4%) and DéFi (6.2%).
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The results of a latest survey in Flanders
In Flanders, as in the June election, the N-VA is ahead of Vlaams Belang, with 26.7% of voting intentions against 23.2% for the far-right party. Vooruit, in third place, has 14.8% voting intentions. Behind the socialists, we find the CD&V (11.3%), the PVDA (8.9%), the Open Vld (6.8%) and Groen (6.5%).
It should also be noted that in the north of the country, surveys were carried out in certain large cities in order to observe the trends which are currently emerging. In Antwerp, if the N-VA remains the most important party in the locality with 28.3% of voting intentions, Bart De Wever’s formation is still losing ground and sees the far left dangerously catching up with 24 .7%. In third position, Vlaams Belang also increases its influence on the municipality since it goes from 10.5% to 17.1%.
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What about the abstention?
For the first time in 131 years, not all Belgians will be forced to go to the polls. The Flemings will be able to choose not to vote this Sunday, October 13. The question therefore arises of the abstention rate, which could drastically increase. According to the Ipsos-Le Soir-RTL Info-Het Laatste Nieuws-VTM poll, 73% of Flemish people are decided to go to the polls, 13% have not yet chosen what they are going to do and 14% will not go vote. “I have the impression that this predicted rate is not so high after all. This still means that 75% of the people announced will go to the polls. We lose perhaps 15% of voters compared to the situation previous time when voting was compulsory.commented Caroline Sägesser, political scientist at CRISP, to La Libre. “But this is the first election to take place under these new conditions. We will have to see the abstention rate in the next elections. I expect this percentage to increase further once everyone is well informed of the removal of the obligation. The municipal vote is the one whose issues are the clearest. It perhaps motivates voters more. I therefore do not expect a drastic drop in participation for this month of October. We will remain with a participation rate that many other countries would envy.”
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The elections of October 13 are particularly lively in certain municipalities, where the rivalry between candidates is great, but also where the majority risks being debunked. La Libre focuses on certain municipalities. Find our file here.
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