UFC 307, in some ways, feels like a stopgap.
To be honest, there is nothing wrong with the proposed title fights on Saturday. Yes, Alex Pereira should fight Magomed Ankalaev, but Khalil Rountree Jr. has done more than enough to warrant a title shot, and stylistically, this main event promises to be a crowd pleaser.
And yes, Julianna Peña returns in a title shot against Raquel Pennington after nearly 800 days away, but aside from Kayla Harrison, is there anyone else on the women’s side at 135 pounds that you root for clamor to see the fight. the title? Norma Dumont? Matchmakers work with what they have.
But if we’re honest with ourselves, what we want to see is that Pereira takes care of business, that Pennington and Peña settle their differences without controversy, and that Harrison impresses sufficiently in his main card bout against Ketlen Vieira to put together the most intriguing women’s tournament. bantamweight title fight since Peña’s rematch with Nunes.
So cross your fingers nothing weird happens.
In other main card action, GOAT Jose Aldo appears to hold off rising bantamweight contender Mario Bautista, and Roman Dolidze returns to middleweight to face two-division contender Kevin Holland.
Quoi: UFC 307
Or: Delta Center in Salt Lake City
When: Saturday October 5. The first prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET with three fights on ESPN+. The four-fight preliminary card begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and ESPNews, followed by the five-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate you are standing MMA Fighting World Rankings et Pound for pound rankingisngs)
Alex Pereira (1, P4P-2) contre Khalil Rountree Jr. (10)
Alex Pereira by KO. Do.
With that predictable prediction out of the way, let’s look at a few less likely scenarios, just for the sake of conversation.
- Khalil Rountree turns the tables on “Poatan,” confusing him in stand-up for a round or two before smoking him with a knockout punch undoubtedly to shock the world. I mean, he’s called “The Glory Killer” for a reason and there’s no bigger former Glory star right now than Pereira.
- Pereira and Rountree fight tooth and nail for 25 minutes, giving us one of the best fights of the year, if not all time, with the winner narrowly securing a decisive victory. It’s hard to imagine these two throwing for five rounds and not landing the end of the world, but you never know.
- Pereira fools everyone by mixing martial arts, channeling his mentor Glover Teixeira and taking Rountree to the mat at will. This hybrid DI All-American/ADCC Champion version of Pereira blasts his way to a 50-45 victory on the cards, much to the confusion of the assembled Utahns.
There’s a sick group among me that wants to see Scenario 3 play out, but I’ve never been one to go for a long shot, so let’s play it safe and say the champ finishes Rountree in the second to set up to a huge match in 2025.
Take: Pereira
Raquel Pennington (2, P4P-9) def. Julianna Pena
Julianna Peña recently told MMA Junkie that she doesn’t believe in altitude training because in the last two altitude competitions in Colorado and Utah, she didn’t experience any adverse effects. Maybe someone should remind her that she lost both of those fights?
Now, one of those losses was a decision by DeAnna Bennett that Peña disputes to this day, the other was an armbar submission loss to Valentina Shevchenko, so no shame in that either. But the fact is she’s 0-2 in fighting at altitude and that can’t be ignored in a fight expected to last five rounds, and against an opponent born and raised in Colorado.
Peña basically swims to Atlantis to fight Aquaman.
Granted, Raquel Pennington doesn’t give off the undulating Jason Momoa vibes, but I’m not sure that’s a necessary condition for beating Peña. “The Venezuelan Vixen” will want to press for victory, but Pennington has rarely been overwhelmed by an opponent other than Amanda Nunes. And Peña is not Nunes.
The good news is that I think this stylistic matchup will prove more entertaining than the Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva fight (what a high bar) and we should have a definitive winner in the end, so we can move on to Pennington vs. Harrison (spoiler!).
Pennington by decision.
Take: Pennington
José Aldo (7) against Mario Bautista
It’s going to be a little weird seeing Jose Aldo and Mario Bautista face off, because there is so much Aldo DNA in this current generation of lighter fighters. Bautista was in high school when the first Aldo was tearing up the WEC and UFC competitions. He must now face the best to achieve this.
It’s such an unfair comparison to make, but the fact is that Aldo has only lost to the best. Merab Dvalishvili. Pierre Yan. Marlon Moraes. Alexander Volkanovski. Max Holloway. Conor McGregor. With the exception of the loss to Moraes (as close a decision as it gets), these are all UFC champions. Bautista is great, but a future UFC champion? I’m skeptical.
I could see all this wrong. Perhaps their fight will both signal Bautista’s rise as a true contender and provide a clear picture of Aldo’s current ceiling. But Bautista has yet to prove himself against elite competition, so if anyone needs a reality check, it’s him. Going from Benito Lopez, Guido Cannetti, Da’Mon Blackshear and a witless Ricky Simon to Aldo is going to give Bautista a serious boost.
Look for Aldo to be just a little sharper and a little more crafty en route to an entertaining decision win.
Take: Aldo
Kayla Harrison (1, P4P-12) contre Ketlen Vieira (4)
Kayla crushes!
We say all the time that athleticism is a cheat code and that’s just one reason why Kayla Harrison should demolish Ketlen Vieira. When you add in a work ethic that’s in the 99th percentile, you can see why many fans are simply counting down the days until she has UFC gold around her waist.
Vieira is not just a player, let’s be clear about that. Outside of a disappointing performance against Irene Aldana, Vieira has gone the distance with the best of them and holds victories over former champions Holly Holm and Miesha Tate, as well as former title challengers Cat Zingano and Sara McMann . She’s a perfectly respectable B-tier contender.
But Harrison has been an A-level prospect since day one and if her win over Holly Holm is any indication, she’s at or near the peak of her powers. This is bad news for Vieira who will test Harrison early before finally succumbing to an unstoppable force.
Take: Harrison
Roman Dolidze (14) against Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze should have stayed at light heavyweight, right?
He would give up size, but following a short decision against Anthony Smith, the 36-year-old Georgian was actually just a few wins away from a title shot in a slim division. Middleweights have been much more competitive in recent years and in Kevin Holland, Dolidze isn’t even fighting a real 185er. Again, perhaps like the Netherlands, it’s just about cashing those checks and going home to your family. Respect.
Holland has made progress with his grappling defense, but I can’t help but imagine Dolidze exploiting this once-fatal weakness and choosing to attack Holland on the canvas. Dolidze is banged up, so Holland’s exciting striking style could carry him to victory if he stays on his feet. Tough match to call.
I don’t like the size Holland is giving up in this division and I think it will be his undoing. Dolidze mixes powerful punches with timely tackles to beat Holland on the cards and return to the group of middleweight contenders.
Take: Dolidzé
Foreplay
Stephen Thompson (10) def. Joaquin Buckley (15)
Marina Rodriguez (7) def. Iasmin Lucindo (14)
César Almeida def. Ihor Potieria
Alexander Hernández def. Austin Hubbard
Ryan Spann def. Ovince Saint Preux
Carla Esparza bat. Tecia Pennington
Short McGee def. Tim means
