the essential
The death last Friday of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah since 1992, does not change the warlike direction of the “Party of God” which must now reorganize quickly. Decryption.
The death of Hassan Nasrallah, confirmed Sunday morning, ended his 32-year rule over Hezbollah, Lebanon’s most influential party. But Friday night’s Israeli attack also struck at the heart of the most powerful militia in the world, and plunged the country and the entire region into uncertainty. Lebanon has declared three days of national mourning, the Shiite community is upset, and Hezbollah must quickly put together an organization capable of continuing the fight while Israel is planning a ground maneuver.
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The sprawling Hezbollah is nothing more than a headless octopus
The post-Nasrallah period is therefore quickly emerging. Under the Lebanese Constitution, Naïm Qassem, number 2 of the party, took over the functions of interim Secretary General while the Shura Council, made up of the eminences of Hezbollah, almost half of whom have been eliminated, elects a successor. The natural choice falls on Hachem Safieddine, 64 years old, distant cousin of Hassan Nasrallah on his mother’s side and who also wears the black turban of the “Sayyeds”, descendants of the Prophet Mohammed to whom they claim to be. The election of a successor should, however, take a few days, since no physical meeting will take place for obvious security reasons: “They have all gone to hide in the basements,” whispers a Sunni deputy.
If it is not defeated, and it still has a substantial military arsenal, the sprawling Hezbollah is nothing more than a headless octopus, whose galvanizing warlike discourse no longer convinces anyone. “The idea that the party could reorganize itself in 48 hours is a farce, not because it lacks military capabilities, but because its narrative of resistance has been destroyed. They have been defeated, propelled into a war for which they were not ready,” observes Makram Rabah, specialist in contemporary Middle Eastern history at the American University of Beirut.
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Another pitfall for the “Party of God”: has the Iranian godfather, obsessed with its nuclear developments, abandoned his foe? “It’s bad timing for Iran,” says a French military source. “Iran needs time to continue its nuclear research and cannot afford a direct confrontation with Israel, and indirectly with the United States.”
Iran keeps a low profile
Israel has been master of the clock since the start of the conflict, and has methodically vaporized all Hezbollah commanders. A few hours before validating the deadly strike on Hezbollah HQ, Benjamin Netanyahu warned the Persian state from the podium of the UN General Assembly: “There is no place in Iran that our capabilities cannot achieve. Hearing “Israel’s first target in Iran could be the nuclear research centers”, continues the same French military source.
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According to a Lebanese security source, it was an Iranian mole who informed Israel of Nasrallah’s trip to a Hezbollah bunker on Friday… Finally, according to another Lebanese security source cited by “L’Orient le Jour”, the Hezbollah members present at Friday’s meeting intended to express their frustrations with Iran, which refused to give the order to strike Israel with more powerful, long-range missiles, such as the Fateh 110, capable of reaching Jerusalem.
Since the death of Nasrallah, Iran has kept a low profile: the spokesperson for Iranian diplomacy, Nasser Kanani, announced that his country would not send Iranian troops to confront Israel, and that “the governments of Lebanon and Palestine have the capacity and power necessary to confront Zionist aggression.”