The place changes, not the issue. One year after the Women's Masters in Cancún (Mexico), won without losing a set by Iga Swiatek, the eight queens of the WTA circuit in 2024 meet this time in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) on Saturday, November 2, for the epilogue of the season. As at the edge of the Caribbean Sea, it is Aryna Sabalenka who arrives with the costume of world number one ahead of the Pole, but with, this time, an advance almost doubled compared to 2023. Enough to place her as the big favorite for finish the year at the top of the rankings for the first time.
Arriving 630 units ahead in Cancún, Aryna Sabalenka broke down in the home stretch by dropping a group match against Jessica Pegula before losing sharply in the semi-final against Iga Swiatek (6-3, 6-2 ). Undefeated, the Pole had then collected 1,500 points, the maximum in this tournament, against only 625 for the Belarusian, snatching the world number one trophy at the end of the season.
In Riyadh, the winner of the season's two hard-court Grand Slams arrives with 1,046 points more than her rival and therefore only 455 to ensure she is not taken over by the four-time winner of Roland-Garros. However, these points are more difficult to obtain than the previous year, when participation in a group meeting alone brought in 125 points.
Following a new scale change in the competition, only success earns points. 200 units per victory in groups, 400 additional in the semi-final and another 500 more for the one who triumphs in the final.
To be sure of not losing her place, Aryna Sabalenka will therefore have to win at least three matches. Either those of her purple group where she will face Qinwen Zheng (n°7), Elena Rybakina (n°5) and Jasmine Paolini (n°4), or two in groups and her semi-final. Otherwise, Iga Swiatek will have the opportunity to repeat the Cancún feat by stealing the lead in the world rankings in the event of a final victory.
It remains to be seen what the state of form of the Pole will be, who has not been seen on the circuit since her elimination in the quarter-finals of the US Open at the beginning of September, and who has just changed coach, hiring Wim Fissette. Conversely, Aryna Sabalenka remains on 20 victories in her last 21 matches (defeat to Karolina Muchova in Beijing on October 4), winning the WTA 1000 tournaments in Cincinnati and Wuhan and the American Grand Slam.
Each in a different group, the two players could meet again, as in Cancun, from the semi-finals, for a match which could be very expensive if the Pole is still undefeated and the Belarusian has dropped a group match. Like their season, Swiatek won the first two face-to-face meetings, each time in the WTA 1000 final on clay (in Madrid, then in Rome), before Sabalenka took the upper hand on hard in Cincinnati semi-final.
If the exact ranking remains uncertain, the two players are guaranteed to finish first and second, like last year, confirming their duel at the top. We have to go back to Lindsay Davenport and Martina Hingis at the end of the last millennium (three times between 1998 and 2000) to find the same duo finishing several consecutive seasons in the first two places.
