The video game industry continues to grow at an impressive pace, but a recent report from DFC Intelligence highlights a future that could be particularly bleak for one of the three giants of the console market. As the next generation approaches with the official announcement of the Switch 2 seemingly imminent, the battle looks set to be fiercer than ever.
Nintendo in force: The Switch 2 as a natural leader
According to DFC Intelligence, Nintendo seems ready to dominate the next generation of consoles with its future Switch 2. Nintendo's strategy is based on solid foundations: a hybrid positioning which has already proven itself, a vast general public games library and an ability to capture both casual gamers and enthusiasts.
The firm predicts that the Switch 2 will top sales thanks to a release well ahead of its competitors, giving Nintendo a crucial head start. According to rumors, the Switch 2 will be announced at the very beginning of 2025 for a release before summer. DFC predicts that Nintendo will sell 15 to 17 million units of the Switch 2 in 2025, and more than 80 million units in 2028, further cementing the company's dominance in the family and portable segment.
Nintendo's advantage also lies in the simplicity of its strategy. Unlike Sony and Microsoft, which focus on high-end technologies and online services, Nintendo prefers experiences focused on gameplay and accessibility.
Xbox or PlayStation: an outsider condemned to suffer?
For Sony and Microsoft, the future looks more uncertain. The DFC Intelligence report highlights that the console market will not be able to support three major players in the long term. Thus, one of the two giants could well suffer in the face of the rise in power of the Switch 2 and direct competition from the other.
The figures speak for themselves: if the two companies manage to maintain a loyal user base, they risk cannibalizing each other in similar segments. The key to success will lie in innovation, price, and the ability to attract players from the launch of their new consoles.
But one of the two actors may well fail to meet these challenges. The report remains cautious, but suggests that Microsoft, despite its massive investments in studios and Game Pass, could be in danger. Indeed, its economic model, very focused on services and the ecosystem, may not be sufficiently attractive in the face of more numerous PlayStation exclusives and Nintendo still dominating mass markets.
- Performance of Nintendo and two other players according to DFC
According to DFC, the console wars will claim one casualty and “there is no room for more than two major console systems.” The firm says Sony or Microsoft will have to fight hard for third place, which will largely depend on which company can gain early momentum.
The firm estimates that Nintendo Switch sales in 2028 will be twice as high as those of the second player, while the third would only collect the crumbs. It remains to be seen who this third player will be, and whether DFC's predictions prove true. Lots of guesswork as Sony hasn't yet announced the PS6, and Xbox hasn't announced its next console either. Microsoft was supposed to make a hardware announcement for the end-of-year holidays, but everything suggests that it was abandoned or postponed.
