Vladimir Guerrero Jr avoided arbitration by signing a one-year, $28.5 million contract with Toronto on Thursday, but is it really a victory for the Blue Jays?
Guerrero will be entitled to complete autonomy at the end of the next season, which could therefore be his last in Toronto.
This is the second straight season that Guerrero has signed a one-year contract and not a long-term contract extension with the Blue Jays. He signed a $19.9 million deal in 2024 after going to arbitration.
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins will undoubtedly have a hard time convincing Guerrero to extend his deal with Toronto before the end of next season.
Guerrero, who turns 26 in March, had his best season since 2021 last year, hitting .323 with 30 homers and 103 RBIs. He had a .376 batting average in 63 games after the All-Star break.
Another season of this type could further increase his already high value and Vladdy will probably want to try his luck on the free agent market, especially after seeing Juan Soto sign a contract of $765 million for 15 years with the Mets of New York last month.
According to an analysis by Keegan Matheson of MLB.comif Guerrero agrees long-term with the Blue Jays, it will likely be after testing the free agent market next winter, much like Aaron Judge did before the 2023 season.
-Judge then signed a nine-year, $360 million deal with the New York Yankees after upping the ante by receiving very tempting offers from the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants.
Still according to Matheson, it would also be unlikely that the Jays would end up trading Guerrero during the next season if they decide not to offer him a contract of around $400 million, a figure that will probably have to be reached to hope to retain his services. .
Guerrero’s contract won’t be the only priority file on Ross Atkins’ desk between now and the end of next season. The other most important member of the Blue Jays’ young core, Bo Bichette, will also become a free agent in 2026.
According to what Bob Nightengale reported from USA Today Earlier this week, Bichette was reportedly not interested in renewing his deal with the Jays beyond next season.
Bichette’s value is harder to assess than Guerrero’s. A model of consistency during his first five seasons in the MLB, the 26-year-old shortstop is coming off his worst campaign with a .225 average, four home runs and 31 RBIs. He was limited to 81 games by injuries.
