While Olympique de Marseille has regained second place in the championship, certain statistics do not invite optimism for the Phocéens.
As it does after each day of Ligue 1, the 90min site asks Opta for its forecasts for the final ranking of the championship. After its draw against FC Nantes (1-1), PSG is still the big favorite, but the chances of the capital club have decreased slightly: 90.8% chance of finishing first, against 94.2% after the previous day.
Overall, Opta's forecast ranking is rather in line with the current hierarchy, even if Olympique de Marseille is still projected in fourth place. And this despite the success of the Phocaeans against Monaco (2-1), which allowed Roberto De Zerbi's men to move to second. OM is still expected behind Monaco and Lille, and ahead of Lyon, Lens and Nice from now on.
For OM, a fourth place would not be a disaster, but it would be a disappointment in view of the club's ambitions. And it would force the Olympians to play two play-off rounds next season before reaching the Champions League, as Lille did this year.
OM not very strong in “expected points”
How can we explain this discrepancy between OM's current ranking and these forecasts? Opta is based on statistics, and therefore attaches great importance to statistics such as xPoints, “expected points”, the points that a team is supposed to collect depending on the situations it creates and the situations it creates. concedes.
Thanks in particular to the prowess of its attackers and its goalkeeper, OM has so far “outperformed” in view of these statistical data. In the xPoints ranking, depending on the sites (Understat, xGscore, footystats), OM is often placed in ninth place, while Monaco is behind PSG the most successful team in this area with… Toulouse. In other words? If the Phocaeans lost their effectiveness in both areas, they could seriously fall in the standings.
