If PSG will not be eliminated from the Champions League this Wednesday evening in the event of a defeat against Atlético Madrid, they urgently need points and could have a diametrically opposed ranking depending on their result.
Asked about the decisive nature of the evening match against Atlético Madrid, Luis Enrique wanted to be pragmatic on Tuesday at a press conference the day before the match. “No, these points are in no way decisive because whichever team loses tomorrow (tonight), they will qualify if they then win their next four matches”assured the Spaniard.
With currently 4 points after three days, PSG would indeed have a good chance of seeing at least the play-offs with 12 more units and 16 points in total. But with another trip to Munich against Bayern and the reception of Manchester City, Luis Enrique's gang would be well inspired to take three points this evening against Atlético.
At worst, PSG will be 28th if they lose against Atlético
Currently 23rd in the general ranking with 4 points and a goal average of -1, PSG is currently among the 16 teams qualified for the play-offs. In the event of a defeat this evening against Atlético, PSG will go down to 28th place at most, synonymous with elimination at the end of the eight-day group stage.
Before PSG/Atlético, 8 teams playing this Wednesday are behind PSG in the standings (including Atlético), but only five can overtake them in the event of a victory. To do this, these teams will have to win and hope for a defeat for PSG, or draw, like Bayern Munich, who face Benfica and who currently have 3 points, but a better goal average than PSG.
At best, PSG will remain 23rd if they lose against Atlético
Also note that if PSG loses against Atlético, it will not necessarily lose place in the standings. For this to happen, their pursuers (Sparta Prague, Bayern Munich, Club Bruges and Shakhtar) would also have to lose. Atlético would necessarily go ahead in the event of a defeat with 6 points, but PSG could go ahead… Stuttgart on goal average provided they lose by a narrower score than the German club, which currently also has 4 points and -1 goal average (like PSG) and faces Atalanta.
At best, PSG will be 7th if they beat Atlético
In the event of a victory against Atlético, PSG would have 7 points in the standings and a goal difference of zero (in the event of a victory by a goal difference) or positive (if a victory with a difference greater than one goal). At best, PSG will be 7th in the standings this evening since Inter Milan and Arsenal, who face each other at 9 p.m. in Lombardy, currently have 7 points. Either one of the two teams goes to 10 points in the event of success and gets closer to the first places, or the two teams will be at 8 points in the event of a draw, and therefore at least 6th and 7th in the ranking.
For PSG to be at best 7th, a winner is needed in the Inter/Arsenal match. If this condition is met, PSG will also have to improve its goal average to be 7th since Manchester City, corrected 4-1 Tuesday evening by Sporting CP (with a hat-trick from Gyökeres), is currently 6th in the general ranking with 7 points and above 6 goal difference. To get back to City level, PSG will have to win Atlético by 7 goals, which seems impossible in reality, although mathematically feasible.
At worst, PSG will be 13th if they beat Atlético
Brest is also playing tonight and currently has 7 points. The Brestois travel to Prague to challenge Sparta and have a goal average of +5. To overtake Eric Roy's men, the Parisians will have to win Atlético and hope for a big Brest defeat to make up the 6-goal gap. Complicated here too in the idea.
In total, nine teams better ranked than PSG play this Wednesday and only three cannot be caught this evening: Arsenal and/or Inter therefore, as well as Aston Villa of Unai Emery, who with currently 9 points will be still ahead of PSG this evening, even in the event of a defeat against Club Bruges. Another interesting element, PSG will in the worst case be 13th overall if they beat Atlético, which would still allow them to gain 10 places in the rankings.
What if PSG draws?
What if PSG draws against Atlético? He will pass Stuttgart if the German club loses against Atalanta. If Stuttgart beats Atalanta, PSG will come back level with the Italian club, which currently has 5 points but a goal average of +3. It would therefore take a heavy Italian defeat against the Germans for a draw for PSG to be enough to pass the Dea thanks to goal difference. Finally, note that with 5 points but +2 goal average, PSV cannot be overtaken by PSG in the event of a draw for the Parisians, who would be at 5 points in this scenario but would remain at -1 goal difference.
To summarize, PSG must win this Wednesday evening to move up the rankingsconsolidate its place in the Top 24 and maintain its chances of finishing in the Top 8 at the end of the championship phase.
