Mohamed Salah is going strong. Already, he has started the season in blistering form contributing to three goals in just two matches so far.
But the clock is ticking for his longevity at Liverpool. Salah is 32 years old now – it’s fair to say he is entering his twilight years at the top of the game.
With his contract currently entering the last twelve months – even if Liverpool do decide to extend his stay at Anfield beyond next summer – a long-term stay at the club is unlikely.
Whether in one or two years, eventually Liverpool will have to find a replacement. But who could that replacement be?
Could Kudus Be The One?
One of the first potential options for Liverpool is Mohammed Kudus. He has been on Michael Edwards’ radar since making a name for himself in the Danish Superliga.
I’ve interviewed Jeremy Seethal in the past, who was the scout who brought him to Right to Dream in Ghana and he has always regarded Kudus in high esteem with the potential to become one of the best African players in the history of the game.
Only 24 years old, Kudus is yet to reach those heights – but in all fairness, neither had Salah at the same age.
What Kudus does have is an impressive background behind him, having played for several years at Ajax and having enjoyed an impressive debut campaign in the Premier League.
Comfortable with both feet, Kudus, is most effective when cutting into his preferred left foot and that’s why he immediately profiles well to be a potential right-wing replacement for Salah.
His output is nowhere near close enough to Salah’s having averaged 0.39 goals per 90 in all competitions last season. But it does come with the caveat that Kudus was used in a lot more defensively rigid system at West Ham, which prevented him from getting himself into goal-scoring opportunities.
The season prior playing in a more offensive minded side (albeit in the Eredivisie) in Ajax, Kudus averaged 0.55 goals per 90 and 0.70 goal contributions in total.
It’s clear that at West Ham, Kudus got into less goal-scoring opportunities. He averaged 3.47 shots per 90 for Ajax in 2022/23, which dropped down to 2.57 shots per 90 for West Ham in 2023/24 – essentially almost one shot less per game. Over a 38 game season that ends-up being a lot less goal-scoring opportunities for him to add to his tally.
Being in a more defensive minded side also meant taking less ‘quality’ shots. If we take a look at Kudus’ heatmap from his last season at Ajax as per Wyscout, you can see he takes on most of his shots in and around the opposition’s penalty area. These would be considered high quality chances with more chances of conversion.
However, while playing for a more defensive orientated side like West Ham, Kudus was unable to get as close to the goal as often as he was at Ajax. Instead, if we take a look at his shot map from last season, you can see a high volume of his shots being a lot further away from the penalty area.
In a side like Liverpool, Kudus’ production would undoubtedly improve as he would be able to get into better goal-scoring opportunities. Whether he would be able to accumulate 0.70 xG as Salah did last season is moot – but he would certainly be more prolific.
On the upside, he would also be able to upgrade the side of Salah’s game that as I mentioned above has declined in recent years.
Kudus is a very agile and technically gifted player. He’s equally adept in tight spaces using his quick feet to beat opponents as he is at exploiting his speed in open spaces to charge at defenders and beat them with his sheer pace.
Last season, no one completed more take-ons (124) than the Ghanaian international in Europe’s top five leagues.
There is no denying he’s one of the best dribblers in European football at the moment – and he would give Liverpool a new dimension – something the Reds have undoubtedly lacked in the last few years under Jurgen Klopp.
Reportedly, Kudus has an £85m release clause which comes into effect next summer. It’s difficult to see him move away from West Ham for anything less than that this summer, and if he continues his good form – West Ham will demand the release clause to be paid in full next summer as well.
The question then remains is Kudus worth £85m? Or is there better value for money elsewhere?
This takes us onto Bryan Mbeumo next. Barring a five day difference, he’s almost to the year one year older than Kudus. But he’s already got several years of experience in English football – including in the Premier League.
Mbeumo was a data signing for Brentford back in 2019. He had posted impressive numbers for Troyes in Ligue 2 and Brentford saw potential that could be honed even further in a more attacking team in the Championship.
Since arriving at Brentford, he has made 92 goal contributions in 200 games for the club.
Last season, he averaged 0.39 goals in all competitions, which is the same as Kudus. However, Mbeumo’s 0.41 goals per 90 in the Premier League is a lot higher than Kudus’ 0.28 goals per 90.
It must be said, this will largely be down to the fact that while playing in a bottom half side, Mbeumo has a very offensive role on the right-wing for Brentford as opposed to Kudus, who at times had to play like a wing-back under David Moyes.
Just take a look at Kudus’ heatmap.
In comparison to Mbeumo’s, who was receiving the ball much further forward on average for Brentford last season.
Mbeumo’s shot map reflects that as well. Unlike Kudus, his shots are very much concentrated inside the opposition’s penalty area, taking very little risks and focusing on taking high quality shots instead.
Mbeumo is a good finisher as well. He had a 17.64% goal conversion last season – which was higher than Salah’s 15.62%.
He may not be as impressive on the ball when in full flow as Kudus, but at the same time Mbeumo is still very effective.
Out of Premier League attackers who played at least 1500 minutes last season and averaged 4 dribbles per 90, Mbeumo ranked in the top 10 for completion rate, averaging 4.91 dribbles and completing 57.85%.
Being left-footed and having predominantly played his career on the right – albeit capable of playing through the middle as well – Mbeumo ticks a lot of boxes for Liverpool.
He’s been playing in a high-press system at Brentford, which could help him accommodate to life at Anfield quicker as well.
Crucially, his current price tag is probably around the £35m-£45m range, which makes him significantly cheaper than Kudus, and perhaps the smarter option between the two? That is for Liverpool’s recruitment team to decide.
