The Fire host Inter Miami, a team they technically played two matches previously in the MLS regular season, a match that took place nearly a month and a half ago because of the Leagues Cup break.
Miami weren’t able to repeat their Leagues Cup victory with Lionel Messi sidelined after sustaining an injury in Copa América, but have been on an absolute tear in MLS, with the team rapidly putting distance between itself and rivals in the Supporters Shield race and having lost just two games in league play since March.
Note: As the Fire just played Inter Miami in July, this is a shorter overview. For a deeper dive into Miami’s tactics and approach, please read that piece, available here.
No Messi, No Problem
The big question mark going into Miami this season wasn’t on the team’s talent or ability – it was whether the team could string together enough results while the team was missing key players due to international play or injury.
Messi is obviously the headliner there – and he hasn’t played for Miami since the beginning of June – but it isn’t just him. Luis Suárez also played the full extent of Copa América, Matias Rojas was called to international duty, Miami sent three players to the Olympics – and despite that plus injuries and suspensions, Miami are currently four points ahead of LAFC atop the Supporters Shield rankings and they have a game in hand.
The team that faltered in the spring when Messi was unavailable has figured things out. Messi actually played in two of the past three games where Miami has dropped points (their 3-3 draw against St. Louis on June 1st, and their 3-1 loss to Atlanta on May 29th).
The other game – a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of FC CIncinnati, the only time the team has dropped points since the June international break – came when, in addition to Messi, Suárez and Rojas, Miami were also missing Jordi Alba, Facundo Farías, Nicolás Freire and Diego Gómez. Combine that with the fact that it was Miami’s third game in eight days and the result is understandable, even if the scoreline is an embarrassment.
Miami – still without Messi – got their revenge last week, beating FC Cincinnati 2-0 at home and dealing the Ohio team a major blow to any hope they had of repeating their Supporters Shield title this year.
So will Messi play? Why would Inter Miami Head Coach Tata Martino rush him back, when the team has been 7W-0D-1L in his absence?
Who Will Be in the Starting XI for Inter Miami?
To get this out of the way: Lionel Messi was listed as out for the match, and he will not be playing. With the team having more or less won the Supporter’s Shield race, there is little incentive to rush him back. Miami are currently competing for two pieces of hardware – the Supporter’s Shield and MLS Cup. They’re on pace to cruise to winning the first one, and want Messi available and healthy to help with the second. That’s the priority.
With that in mind – I wouldn’t be surprised if Luis Suárez started the game on the bench in favor of Leonardo Campana to give the younger legs some starting minutes. Julian Gressel is likely the best option on the right attacking side of the 4-3-3; the question becomes who takes the spot on the right side of the midfield trio with Matías Rojas out. David Ruiz is the natural player at the position but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Yannick Bright get more minutes there for this one, either
Martino kept the 4-3-3 for most games but against FC Cincinnati, he mirrored the team’s three center backs for… a little bit less than half the game, when Tomas Aviles received his second yellow and was sent off. The idea had been to push Sergio Busquets into the back line, with tow center backs to support his limited movement, allowing him to still do Sergio Busquets things on the ball and allowing the wingbacks to push further up.
In the sense that Luis Suárez scored a brace in the first six minutes and secured the team a victory, it didn’t work in the sense that when one of those more mobile center back was sent off, there’s versions of the world where FC Cincinnati found a way to punish a short handed Miami. That’s not the world we’re living in, however.
Especially with Aviles suspended for the match, I think we’re likely to see Miami revert to the 4-3-3 that’s powered them through most of the season. I understand Martino’s desire to switch up formations to better line up against the team that just beat them 6-1 last month; I don’t see the Fire getting the same treatment.
Get off to a good start
The Fire did not get off to a good start against New York City FC, and as Fire Head Coach Frank Klopas explained it, “I think the game at NYCFC, I thought that you also saw a team that was not sharp. I think a big factor in that had to do with us not having played a competitive match almost in three-and-a-half weeks.”
They looked better in the second half, but Klopas said against Miami “we have to be ready for a fast start. I think that’s it.” That’s absolutely true. FC Cincinnati were up a man for the entire second half and trailing for almost the entire game as Luis Suárez scored in the 1st minute and Cincinnati were unable to find the back of the net.
More to the point, the Fire need to come out early to get what will almost certainly be the largest crowd of the season on their side. There may be a few actual Miami fans in attendance (although many of Miami’s diehards have been alienated by the massive price for tickets in Ft. Lauderdale), but regardless of the number of pink jerseys, it will be a crowd composed mostly of Fire fans and neutrals.
Last year, the Fire managed to get the crowd on their side with their play, and by the time the Fire’s fourth goal went in, the vast majority of people in the stands were out of their seats, cheering for the home team.
Who will start for the Fire against Inter Miami?
After weeks of trying to match opponents formations, Frank Klopas rolled out a formation with three center backs against New York City FC’s back four.
Is that the start of a trend? Possibly, since I think there’s a good likelihood that that’s what we see again. I was somewhat surprised to see Arnaud Souquet starting as a center back with both Carlos Terán and Tobias Salquist back to health, but I see the logic, in the sense that it frees the wingbacks – Allan Arigoni on the right side in particular – to go further up the field. I didn’t love that Souquet was being outrun by NYCFC’s young, fast players, something that we could well be saying about Miami after this match, but I also don’t hate the idea.
Still, the midfield had a particularly dour outing, with neither Gastón Giménez nor Kellyn Acosta looking particularly great, Andrew Gutman looking like a guy that hadn’t played in months, and Arigoni having one of his more forgettable games.
I think their level – both individually and collectively – is better than what was on display, and I’d expect them to play better against Miami. The lack of play on both sides of the ball from the midfield justifies, to some extent, why the Fire didn’t get a shot off until the 24th minute. It has to be better, but then again, I’m pretty sure everyone knows that.
A faster start, better preparation and less rust and the Fire can look a lot better against Miami than they did last week against NYCFC. A win and help could see the team into a postseason spot, just as the match against Miami did last year, while Inter Miami look like they’re gunning to break the single-season points record. To do that, though, they have precious little margin for error – they need to take at least 18 of the 24 points available to them, including the game against the Fire.
Both teams have a lot to play for. Both should be motivated. Can the Fire repeat the magic they found in front of a record crowd last year?
