Beyond the LR, will the Senate be the other winner of the new political configuration? As a consequence of the right’s support for Michel Barnier and the announced entry of the LR into government, the Upper House, held by the right and the centre, could take advantage of this to see its influence grow.
The previous legislature had already allowed LR senators and the Centrist Union to have more influence in the debates. The relative majority that has existed since 2022 in the Assembly had reshuffled the cards. Emmanuel Macron could rely on LR senators to hope to influence the position of LR deputies, who played the role of a pivotal group. We saw this during the pension reform – Elisabeth Borne was inspired by the parametric reform that the senatorial majority proposed each year during the examination of the Social Security budget – and even more clearly on the immigration law, where Bruno Retailleau and his LR senators had set the tone.
“Michel Barnier will probably need the senatorial majority to support his bills”
Will we see the Upper House strengthened further? “At Matignon, we have a Prime Minister from the LR, that is to say the majority party in the Senate. So he is an objective ally of the senators. He will probably need this majority to support his bills,” emphasizes historian Jean Garrigues, “and since majorities will be hard to find in the Assembly, it is obviously useful to be able to count on a majority in the Senate.” With “a stronger alliance between LR and the center and Ensemble groups in the Assembly, it will probably be easier to find areas of agreement,” so much so that “in the game of bicameralism, there is perhaps a larger window of opportunity for senators today,” adds Jean Garrigues.
“Where this will probably favour the executive’s normative action is in the joint committee (where deputies and senators seek a common text in the event of disagreement, editor’s note), because the majority will probably be easier to achieve there,” underlines Olivier Rouquan, political scientist, lecturer-researcher in political science and associate researcher at CERSA (Center for Studies and Research in Administrative and Political Sciences). A key point in the parliamentary process.
“It is quite likely that many texts begin their life in the Senate”
“What is in favour of strengthening the Senate is that the Barnier government is relying on political forces that are in the majority in the Senate. Barnier’s relative majority in the Assembly is ultimately the LR and centrist senatorial majority. This configuration obviously gives the Senate significant weight. It is quite likely that many texts will begin their life in the Senate to frame their foundation and ensure their sustainability,” suggests constitutionalist Benjamin Morel, lecturer in public law at the Panthéon-Assas University. “And perhaps the government will need to rely on the Senate. Let’s imagine that the pension reform is repealed by the Assembly, it’s possible. If the government wants to bury it, it can count on the Senate, which will reject the text. And the government will not give the final word to the Assembly,” imagines the constitutionalist. Overall, “the political weight of senators is obviously strengthened. They have an extremely important role.”
Another factor that could work in the Senate’s favor: “Michel Barnier presents himself as a representative of the territories. Compared to a chamber that defines itself as the chamber of the territories, there is de facto a proximity that is created and a form of implicit reinforcement. Barnier has an interest in relying on this local dimension to take a little distance from the parties and show his difference with Emmanuel Macron,” notes Jean Garrigues.
Reality principle
But this reading of a strengthened Senate would be a little too short. The reality is more complex. Olivier Rouquan thus tempers this vision. “This will make the Senate, on many texts, a chamber that will facilitate the action of the executive. However, it is always the Assembly that has the last word,” recalls the teacher-researcher. Olivier Rouquan adds:
The Senate will undoubtedly be a point of support for Michel Barnier, but it is not the Senate that will be the alpha and omega when it comes to voting on the various laws.
And if the LR find some breathing room, politically, they will not be alone in governing. “If we see the reactions of part of the Macronist left on the elimination of State Medical Aid, we see that it would not be at all obvious that it could pass”, while the measure is defended by the senatorial right and the LR, notes Jean Garrigues, who adds that “the Ensemble coalition has three times more deputies than the LR in the Assembly. They will weigh less”. The principle of reality could quickly impose itself on the right, once the parliamentary session resumes…
“The real boss of the government is this capricious majority in the Assembly”
Benjamin Morel also brings a caveat. “Besides that, there is a government that is based on a very complicated, very unstable majority, with an RN that has decided not to overthrow it. The real boss of the government is this capricious majority. If its survival depends on it, the government will have to give in to the Assembly. If ever there are senatorial arbitrations that create too much tension in the Assembly, the government will have to give the Assembly a discharge,” says the law professor, who insists: “If the majority in the Assembly demands something, with a very delicate balance found, a modus vivendi, the Senate will have very little influence then. If the Senate decides to impose its version, it could scupper the deal of an improbable majority.”
Bottom line, according to Benjamin Morel, “in times of low tension, the Senate can play a game where it wins, with its senatorial expertise, but on very political, very complicated subjects, having the Senate’s approval will be a luxury that the government will not be able to afford to seek.” “We can say that a priori, there is a form of strengthening of the Senate, to the extent that it becomes the assembly par excellence in support of the government majority. As a result, it has a more important role. But it is more on the political than institutional level,” summarizes Jean Garrigues.
“The balance of power is completely reversed in the Senate”
Another major consequence for the Senate, with LRs embarked in the future Barnier government: the senatorial majority, which was in opposition to the government, finds itself in the majority. A 180-degree turnaround that will change a lot of things at the Palais de Marie de Médicis. “The balance of power is no longer the same at all in the Senate. It is completely reversed. Since 2017, we had a bipolar opposition, with the PS on one side and the LR on the other, gripping the presidential majority. Here, it is the opposite. It is as if the centrists and the Macronists entered a senatorial majority that is a support for the government,” notes Jean Garrigues.
The senatorial left, which shared with the LR the opposition to Emmanuel Macron in the Upper House, will find itself alone in the race on this ground. Enough to strain the debates in the hemicycle. The discussions, generally more civilized in the Senate than in the Assembly, could gain in intensity with this new divide.
The Senate as a counter-power, “it’s over”, thinks Jean Garrigues
Another effect should be felt in the coming months: it would not be surprising if the Senate’s mission of government control were exercised differently. It is not certain that we will find a commission of inquiry like the one on the Benalla affair, where the Senate and the executive had polar relations, or the one on covid-19, consulting firms or the Marianne fund. The Upper House had gained an image of a counter-power to Emmanuel Macron. “That’s over. It seems over to me. It would be coherent. It will fade away, logically. We can bet that the commissions of inquiry will not be instigated by the senatorial majority, at least not against the Barnier government,” thinks the historian. In the very unstable political period that we have been experiencing since the dissolution, we are no longer far from a surprise.
