Unpredictable, whimsical, economically aggressive… The arrival of Donald Trump raises fears of an upheaval in the geopolitical balance, even among his allies. Twists and turns which should not, however, affect too violently the very secret world of the French foreign intelligence services.
“The United States is our ally. With their intelligence services, cooperation is particularly intense because it strengthens our mutual security,” assured at the end of November in the columns of Point Nicolas Lerner, Director General of the Directorate General for External Security (DGSE). Indeed, relations between intelligence services, particularly between two allied countries, are built to remain impervious to political hazards.
Unchangeable relationships even in the worst storm
“Even in 2003, at the worst moment in relations between the United States and France [sur fond de tensions sur la guerre en Irak]the diplomatic cold has had no impact on the cooperation of the services,” recalls Raphaël Ramos, historian, associated researcher at Paul-Valéry University in Montpellier and author of the Intelligence Online site. Stressing that during Donald Trump's first term, the strategic partnership “did not suffer”, Nicolas Lerner cannot “imagine that a political shift would weaken bilateral cooperation which dates back to the Second World War”.
As for our spies (in the collective imagination) or intelligence officers (in professional jargon), again, it won't change much. “I have experienced a lot of alternations in governance in forty years of work, at home or elsewhere, the services tend to smooth out changes in regime, we work in the long term and political waves hardly affect us, even when It’s a big wave like Donald Trump,” says Alain Chouet, former head of the security intelligence service of the DGSE.
Certain situations may nevertheless lead French intelligence to be more cautious. In an article published on the Rubicon website, Clément Renault, historian of international relations and “intelligence, war and strategy” researcher at the Strategic Research Institute of the military school (Irsem) recalls “the very problematic and casual management of information sensitive or classified” by Donald Trump. As when the latter revealed information on a source of a partner within the Islamic State to Russian Minister Sergei Lavrov during his last mandate. Or the 325 problematic “classified” documents found in his Mar-a-Lago residence and for which he was being prosecuted until November 2024.
A potentially destabilizing politicization
In addition to this lack of conscientiousness towards sensitive information, his distrust of his own intelligence services could change the situation. Donald Trump has never tried to hide his aversion to the secret services and what he calls the “Deep State”. He also placed John Ratcliffe at the head of the CIA, a man “with little experience in the matter, loyal and devoted to Donald Trump”, and “that could have an impact in the long term”, underlines Raphaël Ramos.
-His appointment raises fears about the politicization of intelligence which could lead to purges, resignations or even “delays, inability to commit, to obtain arbitrations”, imagines Clément Renault. In the longer term, “the allied services could be tempted to be more cautious in sharing information with the United States for fear that it will be used for political interests,” warns Raphaël Ramos. Worse, the relationship of trust between intelligence services could be put to the test due to the actions of the American executive.
Common mutual interests
The “precedent of the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction of 2002 [mensonge qui sera le déclencheur de l’invasion de l’Irak par les Etats-Unis] has had a lasting impact on the credibility of American intelligence”, the historian nevertheless qualifies, thus questioning “the repercussions that could result from intelligence declassified by a Trump team” on sensitive subjects such as that of China for example.
Our file on Donald Trump
Overall, however, the United States remains our ally. For intelligence relations to be truly altered, Donald Trump's America would have to “enter into economic, technological, military confrontation with France or Europe and then we would be dealing with a hostile country and that would change the situation.” », pushes Alain Chouet who dismisses this hypothesis because “the American administration needs peaceful exchanges with Europeans”.
