Cases of respiratory illnesses are on the rise and are having an impact on crowds in health establishments, but this is not a surprising situation at this time of year, according to the Ministry of Health of New -Brunswick.
During the most recent period covered by New Brunswick’s respiratory surveillance program, from December 22 to 28, there was an increase in the number of cases (132 in total), the percentage of positivity (11%) and the number of hospital admissions (23) related to the flu (influenza).
As for COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the number of cases is decreasing or stable compared to the previous week.
Compared to the beginning of December, on the other hand, there has been a constant increase in cases and hospitalizations linked to these respiratory viruses.
“We expected an increase in activity for respiratory illnesses at this point in the viral season,” said Dr. Yves Léger, acting chief medical officer of the New Brunswick Department of Health.
As for Vitalité Network health establishments, we have noticed an increase in traffic. According to Christian Nkanu, Director of Infection Prevention and Control at Vitalité, this situation is attributable to the numerous gatherings that occurred during the holiday period.
“A similar trend was noted last year, where occupancy rates and emergency room visits fell significantly in the run-up to Christmas, before starting to rise again afterwards. We are closely monitoring the activity of respiratory viruses and continually assessing the need to adjust existing public health measures to protect the health of all.”
Since the start of the surveillance period, which began on August 25, until December 28, the number of confirmed influenza cases stands at 456. The number of COVID-19 cases is 1,772, while the The number of RSV cases is 472. In the case of influenza and RSV, about half of the total cases were reported in the last two weeks of December.
While flu cases are fairly well distributed among all age groups of the New Brunswick population, we note, in the respiratory surveillance report, that confirmed COVID-19 cases are more numerous among those aged 65 and above and that we find more cases of RSV in children aged 0 to 4 years.
If we compare the extent of respiratory diseases with what happened in 2023, we note, in the reports of the Ministry of Health, a significant decrease in the number of confirmed cases between the months of August and December.
Last year, during roughly the same period (August 27 to December 30), the number of COVID-19 cases stood at 2,414 and the number of flu cases stood at 1,501. There were no data for RSV which was added to the program in August 2024.
However, the number of deaths linked to COVID-19 increased slightly in 2024 (55) compared to the same period in 2023 (54). The number of hospitalizations increased from 1,066 in 2023 to 673 in 2024.
In the case of influenza, there were two deaths in 2024, compared to nine during the same period in 2023. The number of hospitalizations increased from 239 in 2023 to 65 in 2024.
There were eight RSV-associated hospitalizations from late August to late December 2024.
The peak is not reached
It is too early to say whether this season will be marked by a significant number of infected people, but we know that the circulation of viruses will be very active in the coming weeks, since the peak of the epidemic has not yet been reached.
The Canadian respiratory virus surveillance report indicates that the weekly influenza-related hospitalization rate is 2.9 per 100,000 population. “At the moment, we have not reached the peak of the influenza season, this remains data which is at the start of the epidemic. It can be much higher than that,” commented Dr. Jesse Papenburg, who works at the Montreal Children’s Hospital.
The epidemic threshold was exceeded the week ending December 21 in Canada. Since then, the curve of influenza infections has continued to rise. The epidemic threshold is 5% of positive tests for influenza. When it is exceeded and at least 15 weekly influenza detections are reported, a seasonal influenza epidemic is declared.
In Canada, the percentage of positive influenza tests in clinical laboratories is 11.3%; in New Brunswick, it is 11%, according to the most recent data from the provincial Department of Health.
Dr Papenburg, who is a pediatrician, infectious disease specialist and microbiologist, explains that we are in the ascending phase of the epidemic. “The season has started and in the weeks that follow the incidence rates will continue to increase and we will still see many cases of influenza for the coming weeks,” he said. Usually, an influenza season can last around 10 to 16 weeks, so we still have several weeks left and we are far from the peak. I think the next few weeks are going to be more difficult in terms of influenza.”
-Dr. Papenburg warns young children and the elderly who are at higher risk of complications from influenza. “Children under 5 years old, but particularly children under 2 years old, as well as our elders, people aged 65 and over, but especially 75 years and over, are at higher risk of hospitalization and complications of their influenza infection,” he says.
“I have the impression that we are going to see a typical influenza season which arrives in the middle of winter which will cause severe illness, particularly in people at higher risk,” continues Dr. Papenburg, who is also an associate member in the Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health and assistant professor of pediatrics and the Faculty of Medicine at McGill University.
He reminds us that there is always time to get vaccinated against influenza. Protective antibodies develop between 7 and 14 days after receiving the vaccine.
“It is not too late because we are still in the ascending phase of the epidemic. The next few weeks are going to be worse than what we have right now. Someone who gets vaccinated now will offer themselves protection during this period when there is the greatest circulation of influenza.
Dr Papenburg points out that although vaccine effectiveness varies from year to year, the average protection is 50%. In other words, getting vaccinated reduces the risk of hospitalization by half.
Influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates for the 2024-2025 season are expected to be available in February or March 2025.
Reduce risks
Dr. Yves Léger agrees with Dr. Papenburg: the best way to protect yourself and reduce the risk of serious illness is to stay up to date with vaccinations against respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza and pneumococcus.
He also judges that New Brunswickers can take certain actions to reduce the risks during periods of increased respiratory activity, such as avoiding sick people, staying at home when they do not feel well, washing their hands frequently. hands and adopt other healthy behaviors, such as trying to get restful sleep every night and following a healthy diet.
“You should also consider wearing a mask when indoors in public spaces, especially those that are crowded or poorly ventilated,” he also suggests.
A relatively normal return to class
In schools, the return from the holiday break is going well overall for the French-speaking North-West School District.
Although a message was sent to parents on January 4 to share an action plan in the event of a shortage of teachers due to seasonal viruses, it was sent preemptively, the head of strategic relations explained to DSFNO, Julie Poulin.
“The message sent to parents is preventive, considering that in our part of the country, viruses seem to circulate more in the fall and winter.”
As for the Francophone South School District, the return to class is going fairly well overall.
According to the director of strategic relations at the DSFS, Jean-Luc Thériault, the absenteeism rate of teaching staff is reasonable. For the week of January 6 to 10, it was 10.31%, which is slightly lower than the rate of 11.36% recorded before the holiday holidays, i.e. for the period of December 16 to 20, 2024.
“While it is possible that cases of seasonal flu or other viruses are contributing to these absences, we do not have specific information on the reasons for the leave. That said, we continue to encourage good hygiene practices, such as regular hand washing and disinfection of common areas to limit the spread of viruses in our schools.”
With extracts from the Canadian Press
