Presidential election in Croatia: towards a victory for the outgoing Milanovic

Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, a socialist with populist overtones, was re-elected handily on Sunday, inflicting a snub on the conservative right-wing HDZ party which leads the government.

This is the highest score in a presidential election since Croatia’s independence in 1991, where the head of state has few powers, but is seen as a vector of stability and a cog guaranteeing the proper functioning of the institutions. Zoran Milanovic came close to victory in the first round, with 49% of the votes.

The result is another blow to the HDZ and Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, Zoran Milanovic’s lifelong political rival, after a high-profile corruption scandal in November.

“Croatia, thank you!” Zoran Milanovic told his supporters gathered in an art center. “I see this victory as recognition of my work over the last five years and a message of plebiscite from the Croatian people addressed to those who should hear it,” he continued, referring to the government.

The participation rate was nearly 44%, according to the electoral commission. This country of 3.8 million inhabitants, a member of the European Union, is struggling with the highest inflation rate in the euro zone, endemic corruption and a labor shortage.

The former Yugoslav republic has been mainly governed by the HDZ since its independence in 1991. But Zoran Milanovic, a former left-wing prime minister, took over the presidency in 2020 with the support of the main opposition party, the Social Democrats (SDP ).

A key figure on the political scene for nearly two decades, he regularly calls European leaders into question. On Sunday, after voting in Zagreb and expressing confidence in victory, he again criticized Brussels, according to him “in many respects autocratic and unrepresentative”.

“Milanovic is a kind of political omnivore,” political analyst Zarko Puhovski told AFP: the president is widely considered the “only counterweight, at least symbolic, to Plenkovic’s government and power.” Zoran Milanovic’s style has boosted his popularity and helped attract support from right-wing voters.

His rival, Dragan Primorac, 59, former Minister of Education and Science returning to politics after 15 years of absence, insisted on patriotism and family values. But critics say his lack of charisma cost him the rallying of the HDZ base.

Zoran Milanovic had condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but also criticized Western military support for kyiv, and is a noted opponent of a program that would have seen Croatian soldiers help train Ukrainian troops in Germany. This earned him accusations of “pro-Russian puppetry” by the HDZ.

“The defense of democracy does not consist of telling all those who do not think like you that they are ‘playing for Russia,’” he responded to journalists on Sunday. For their part, young Croatians have expressed their frustration at the absence in the campaign of subjects that really interest them, such as housing or the standard of living of students.