Guatemala is open to taking in citizens of other Central American nations who are expelled from the United States, three sources familiar with the matter said, as the country seeks to build a positive relationship with the incoming Trump administration.
“There has to be a regional response,” a Guatemalan official who requested anonymity told Reuters. “And we want to be part of the solution.”
The United States has had difficulty deporting citizens from places like Nicaragua, Venezuela and Haiti due to strained relations. That could pose a challenge to President-elect Donald Trump, who has vowed to deport record numbers of immigrants living in the United States illegally.
His team has already contacted the governments of several countries to verify their willingness to welcome deportees from third countries.
Many neighbors of the United States, including Mexico and the Bahamas, have said they do not want to receive deportees from third countries.
In 2022, more than 40% of immigrants living in the United States illegally were from Mexico, accounting for 4.8 million of the 11 million overall, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Followed by Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, which together represent over a fifth of the total.
Guatemala has been particularly proactive in preparing for a second Trump term compared to neighbors El Salvador and Honduras, meeting with members of Trump's transition team, Senator Marco Rubio before he was tapped as Secretary of State, and the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, on mass migration and deportations, border security, drug trafficking and China.
All three countries, along with the government of Nicaragua which has the most openly hostile relationship with the United States, find themselves facing a moment of reckoning, both in managing Trump's request to accept the deportees and in the potential reduction in remittances from immigrants to the United States, which contribute significantly to their economies.
Trump's transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
LOOKING FOR A QUIET START
The meetings between Guatemala and the United States signal that the center-left government of President Bernard Arevalo, an ally of the Biden administration, wants to get off to a smooth start with the Trump administration, despite ties between Guatemala's conservative opposition and many in orbit of the President-elect. Trump's inauguration will take place on January 20.
El Salvador, whose populist President Nayib Bukele already has close ties to the Trump camp, has taken a less proactive approach. But a source familiar with discussions between Salvadoran officials and the transition team said the Trump administration expects smooth cooperation with El Salvador on immigration matters.
The Guatemalan official noted that the country already receives 14 deportation flights a week under President Joe Biden and is preparing for an increase.
Honduran Deputy Foreign Minister Antonio Garcia told Reuters the country receives 10 deportation flights a week. Reuters was unable to confirm the number of deportation flights to other Central American countries.
INCREASE IN DEPORTATIONS
Guatemala expects a significant increase in deportations this fall, on the rationale that it will take time to increase them.
“We're not ready for this, but we know it's coming,” a second Guatemalan government official said.
Guatemala will give priority to Guatemalans for reintegration, the second official said, adding that each country should take responsibility for its own citizens, but also highlighting a regional pact between Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador that allows for free movement.
Guatemala's vision for the deportees is to put their skills developed in the United States to work in the private sector, the person said.
“These are people who have worked in construction, in the service industry, in various sectors, and many speak English. We want to take advantage of this.”
In late November, Guatemala's Security Minister and Migration Director traveled to Washington, according to the three sources familiar with the matter, and met with Rubio and other key Republicans, where they discussed drug trafficking, migration and deportations.
They also met with the Heritage Foundation, whose employees worked through much of the first Trump administration.
As they discussed immigration and deportations, the foundation emphasized above all that it wanted Guatemala to maintain its loyalty to U.S. ally Taiwan over China, the sources said.
Officials know that more deportations could strain Guatemala's economy if remittances decline and the cost of resettling deportees rises.
About 20% of Guatemala's GDP comes from remittances – money sent home from the diaspora in the United States.
In 2023, remittances accounted for 24% of El Salvador's gross domestic product and nearly 30% of Honduras' GDP.
Guatemalan officials said they were not concerned about the immediate economic effects of a decline in remittances, but expressed concern about the reduction in remittances associated with Trump's proposed tariff increases or taxation of remittances.
“We don't have a financial plan yet, there are too many unknowns,” the second official said.
Guatemalan officials are analyzing U.N. International Organization for Migration surveys showing which parts of Guatemala have departed the most migrants, hoping to prepare those communities for their possible return, two officials said.
The Salvadoran government has said it will announce its plans once the Trump administration takes action.
“We work with facts and this is still speculation,” Vice President Felix Ulloa told Reuters.
Bukele, like Trump, presents himself as a political troublemaker and has ties to many people close to Trump.
Honduran Deputy Foreign Minister Garcia said the country's ambassador to the United States had met informally with Trump's transition team and Guatemala to coordinate a response.
Garcia stressed that the country has always received deportees, but noted that at least 40% of migrants seek to migrate back to the United States. He added that it is important for the two countries to work to improve the living conditions that cause migration, such as gang violence, unemployment and poverty.
“Honduras is already experiencing the phenomenon of mass deportations and maybe the difference will be from 10 flights to 20 or 30 more,” Garcia said. “We will have to sit down with the Americans and agree on logistics and slots in repatriation centers to do so within a framework of dignity and respect.”
