Even if it is a technical text, intended to allow the State to “turn around” in the absence of a budget, the special law will not be neutral on the macroeconomic level. By freezing certain tax measures, these three articles, voted on following the government's motion of censure, will support growth a little, indicates the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE) in a note published on Sunday December 22. At the cost of an increase in the budget deficit and a widening of inequalities, since the big winners are the wealthiest households and large businesses.
In its forecasts made in the fall, the OFCE estimated that the 2025 finance bill (PLF), now shelved, could hamper 2025 growth by 0.8 points of gross domestic product (GDP). . On this basis, the institute had established a growth forecast of 0.8% for next year. The special law, by freezing the tax reforms or exceptional measures envisaged, changes the situation.
In the hypothesis – theoretically improbable – that this law is maintained throughout 2025, in the absence of new budgetary texts, the OFCE now estimates that growth could reach 1.4%. On the other hand, unless new measures are taken, “the public deficit would be between 6.1% and 6.4% of GDP in 2025”, indicate the authors of the note, instead of the 5.3% planned in the 2025 PLF. “We will have a little more growthsummarizes Mathieu Plane, deputy director of the OFCE's Analysis and Forecasts department and one of the authors of the note. But be careful of the induced effects, linked to the uncertainties weighing on businesses, for example, or to the risk of instability. »
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For businesses, the special law allows them to escape, at least for a while, a significant increase in compulsory contributions, of more than 20 billion euros in total. The cancellation of the exceptional contribution on large groups will alone result in 8 billion euros less tax for the largest French companies. The “reprofiling” of exemptions from employer contributions on low salaries, which represents 4 billion euros, is also postponed – this is a gain for companies which widely use this system. As for the suspension of the reduction in the contribution on added value (CVAE), it also results in 1 billion euros in savings for companies.
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