Legislative: the RN would not obtain an absolute majority (First projection after withdrawals)

The projection below is likely to change as withdrawals are announced and the final composition of the second rounds is established. Please let us know (contact[at]legrandcontinent.eu) any local projection that you think raises questions.

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The projection below was made from the results of the first round (published by the Ministry of the Interior), the count of withdrawals carried out by The world and transition matrices between the first and second rounds published by Cluster 17 on June 28. This is therefore not a forecast and the usual precautions are required in the absence of data concerning the main unknown and the most decisive factor: participation.

The constituencies were then considered one by one and an outcome determined manually for each of them by taking into account: the statistically probable winner in light of the vote transfers; the lead of the candidate who came first in the first round; the party affiliation of the NFP candidates; and certain particular local configurations. In cases of great uncertainty, several potential winners were determined, giving rise to a range of seats for each party.

• In a maximalist scenario, the number of seats won by RN and LR-RN candidates (262) would be insufficient to reach an absolute majority (289) in the Assembly.
• The average scenario confirms the emergence of three main blocs (NFP, ENS, RN) which would however be very unequal: the coalitions of the left and centre parties would have only around twenty more deputies than the alliance between the RN and the Friends of Ciotti.

The main uncertainty concerns the transfer of votes from center and left voters to the RN in the event of RN-NFP and RN-Ensemble duels in the second round.

• In particular, the reports towards the RN of left-wing voters are given at much lower levels (
• If these reports reached such a level in 2024, an absolute RN majority would become possible again, even probable.

Abstention (or participation) in the second round will be particularly decisive and difficult to predict.

• In a Cluster 17 poll on June 28, 58% of Ensemble voters said they would prefer to abstain in a second round pitting a candidate from the National Rally against a candidate from the New Popular Front.
• The logic of abstention among left-wing voters is similar: when they are asked to choose between Ensemble and the RN, 54% say they would abstain, 42% would choose Ensemble and 4% the National Rally.