COP29 | The fear of a setback increases with 48 hours to go

The possibility that the negotiations will end with a reduction in climate ambition at COP29 is increasing, while discussions on finance are stalling, 48 hours before the end of the summit, worrying observers and negotiators alike.

“It’s a fear we have,” confides to The Press a source close to the negotiations, who is not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

The preservation of the “integrity” of the consensus to move away from fossil fuels concluded at COP28 in Dubai in December 2023 is at stake, there is concern in diplomatic circles.

This uncertainty is notably attributable to the laborious progress of discussions on climate financial aid to be paid to emerging countries, which is at the heart of this 29^e United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29).

Countries meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan, must reach an agreement to succeed the one that called for rich countries to pay developing countries 100 billion US dollars per year until 2025.

“All the negotiation rooms are blocked or slowed down because we are in the process of negotiating this new objective”, which is the subject of bargaining chips, notes the general director of the Canada Climate Action Network Caroline Brouillette, contacted on site .

The debates in plenary or during negotiation meetings are “very heated”, notes Charles-Édouard Têtu, climate and energy policy analyst at Équiterre.

“We rely much more on corridor negotiations, that’s really where the delegates will find a way to agree,” he observes.

“Weak” presidency

Observers and negotiators blame the host country for the state of the discussions.

“The absence of leadership from the presidency negatively affects the negotiations,” notes Andréanne Brazeau, senior policy analyst at the David Suzuki Foundation, contacted on site.

Azerbaijan “had minimal preparation and did not dedicate the resources that were required by the scale of the challenge,” adds Caroline Brouillette.

“It’s a mini-COP,” agrees Mark Purdon, holder of the Chair on decarbonization at the University of Quebec in Montreal, who attended around fifteen of these UN conferences.

The country presiding over a COP must demonstrate that it understands the negotiation process and ensure that countries feel comfortable leading them, summarizes our source close to the discussions.

“On both fronts, we haven’t seen that much,” she said.

“Still far” from an agreement

The outcome of the conference therefore appears particularly uncertain, two days before its closing.

“It’s rare that we are so close to the end of a COP with so little indication of what the final agreement will look like,” says Caroline Brouillette.

“We are still far from an agreement,” says Andréanne Brazeau, regretting that the presidency has immediately given up on delivering a “cap decision”.

A cover decision is a political declaration bringing together the result of negotiations on the various subjects discussed, but also evoking other commitments, such as the “United Arab Emirates consensus” of COP28. in 2023 or the “Glasgow Climate Pact” of COP26 in 2021.

“The presidency has already announced that there would be none so as not to distract the negotiating teams who are at a dead end,” said M^me Brazeau. This shows that the presidency did not play its role as it should have. »

Not “charity”

The lack of leadership on the part of “key states” is also to be blamed for the disappointing progress of COP29, notes Charles-Édouard Têtu.

Few Western heads of state and government made the trip to Baku, and few countries announced an increase in their climate actions.

Canada, in particular, is “missing,” deplores Andréanne Brazeau, calling on Ottawa to be “more flexible” on financing mechanisms intended for emerging countries and to increase its own contribution.

“The G7 countries owe a climate debt to the rest of the world and, for the moment, it is as if they had forgotten it,” she said, stressing that this money is necessary to allow emerging countries to decarbonize.

Especially since countries having taken climate initiatives “have been punished on the markets”, deplores Caroline Brouillette, citing Colombia, whose credit rating was lowered after the election of President Gustavo Petro in 2022, which promised to curb the expansion of fossil fuel projects.

“It’s impossible for emerging countries to raise their ambition without financial aid,” she says.

And the financing that will be offered to emerging countries must mainly consist of public subsidies, and not loans, in order not to increase their debt and to give them greater autonomy in the choice of measures to apply, underline the observers interviewed by The Press.