Attijari Global Research (AGR) predicts the continuation, in the medium term, of the new phase of monetary easing initiated by Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) with the reduction of the key rate (TD) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%.
The end of the BAM monetary tightening cycle and the start of a new accommodating cycle could be justified by the confirmed ebb of inflationary tensions, the new imperatives to support national growth and the change of monetary course on a global scale, explains AGR in a quarterly report entitled “A monetary pivot paving the way for a new phase of easing”.
This monetary pivot could continue in a general context marked by the confirmation of the return of real rates to positive territory, a transmission of monetary tightening to debit rates, the start of the State’s social projects and measures to target subsidies and the absence of visible tension on the dirham despite volatility movements on the EUR/USD parity, specifies the same source.
Read also: Inflation: Bank Al-Maghrib anticipates an average rate of 1.5% in 2024
Given the reassuring inflationary forecasts and the visible easing of pressures on national savings, BAM would be willing to continue its monetary easing in 2024, estimates the research office, noting that this new direction of lowering international TDs would facilitate the external financing of the Treasury and limit pressures on the bank liquidity deficit.
Thus, Bank Al-Maghrib could operate at least a reduction in its TD during the next 12 months under the hypothesis of a controlled inflationary environment, noting two major trends which support this new accommodating strategic shift, namely favorable prospects for continuation of disinflation and the monetary pivot enacted by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June 2024, predicts AGR, noting that the measures undertaken by the State for better targeting of deprived populations and the measures to support the power of household purchases are insurance factors in relation to the future evolution of inflation.
With MAP
