A few days before the first round of the legislative elections, it is very difficult to predict whether or not there will be an absolute majority for one of the 3 main camps within the National Assembly. In the event of a relative majority, what could be the solutions for the president? We take stock with Nicoletta Perlo, Toulouse specialist in public law.
What are the options for the President of the Republic in the event of a relative majority this Sunday July 7, 2024? Emmanuel Macron could choose to form a technical government, made up of experts not from political parties, as has been the case on several occasions in Italy. Some voices, like Yaël Brau-Pivet, president of the National Assembly, are calling for a government of popular unity.
Are these scenarios plausible and what would be the consequences for French domestic policy? We asked the question to Nicoletta Perlo, lecturer in public law at Toulouse Capitole University.
Nicoletta Perlo, lecturer in public law at Toulouse Capitole University.
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France 3 Occitanie: Nicoletta Perlo, what does the French constitution provide for on the evening of the second round of these legislative elections?
Nicoletta Perlo : Theoretically, legislative elections should result in a clear majority in favor of one of the parties. This is due to the voting method, a two-round majority, which is very different from other models, such as in Italy, where proportional representation plays an important role.
So of course, there have already been cohabitations (the last in 1997 with Jacques Chirac and Lionel Jospin), but since then, by reducing the presidential mandate from 7 to 5 years and by organizing joint legislative elections one month after the presidential election, the French legislator did everything to avoid it. In any case, on the evening of the second round, if an absolute majority is won by a party or a coalition of homogeneous parties, tradition dictates that the Prime Minister comes from this majority. Not respecting this republican custom would be a very serious act on the part of the President of the Republic, especially in a period when he has lost a large part of his legitimacy.
France 3 Occitanie: And if on the evening of July 7 no clear majority emerges, can we see the birth of a “technical” government?
Nicoletta Perlo : The definition of technical government is a Prime Minister, not from a party who forms a government with a majority of ministers, who like him, are experts and not politicians. This has not been seen in France since the 4th Republic, but in Europe, certain countries such as Greece, Portugal and especially Italy have used it on several occasions.
But, what you need to know is that these expert governments are set up on a temporary basis to provide precise answers to specific problems, in the context of a national emergency. This was the case in Greece to respond to the economic crisis of 2008. This was also the case in Italy to face a serious threat of terrorism. Every time there is a moment of emergency. And this is not the situation that France is currently experiencing. This is why this solution seems implausible to me. Without a contingent crisis, I do not see how the President of the Republic could justify the appointment of a non-political expert to Matignon in July.
France 3 Occitanie: So what would be the most likely solution in the event of no majority on the evening of the second round?
Nicoletta Perlo : A sort of government of national solidarity could be created, with a very broad coalition, including those who wish to participate. And in this case, the President of the Republic could identify a Prime Minister, who is not an expert, but a man or a woman, who achieves consensus within the different parties. This is what Yaël Braun-Pivet, the president of the National Assembly, demanded before the dissolution.
Afterwards, I think that this would make large-scale reforms very difficult, affecting major areas, such as health, immigration or schools. These are reforms, which have always distinguished presidents, strongly supported by Parliament. With such a government, strong dissensions risk appearing on each text and the parliamentary debate will only be longer and more difficult. What is certain is that the government will try to guarantee the proper functioning of the administration and will manage current affairs until the next presidential election or possible legislative elections. But not for a year, because a new dissolution will not be possible before 2025.
Afterwards there is a positive side in this scenario, it is the reassessment of Parliament. For a long time, it has been nothing more than a chamber for recording texts desired by the President of the Republic. With a government of popular unity, deputies could once again make their voices heard and would once again become real actors in French politics.
Read: TESTIMONIALS. “I had given up on politics for my mental health”: on vacation, poorly registered, voters rush to make their proxy
Ultimately, this is the true 5th Republic. It is the one which was included in the French Constitution, and which was subverted by General de Gaulle, who has since made it a semi-presidential regime.
