What will it look like The national assembly on the morning of July 8? Can the National Rally, which achieved a historic score in the European elections, hope for an absolute majority? Not quite, as shown our Toluna Harris Interactive poll for RTL, M6 and Challenges this Thursday, June 20.
The balance of power is clearly in favor of the RN with 33% of voting intentions. But in seats, the RN and its allies would obtain between 235 seatslow hypothesis, and 282 seats, high hypothesis, of which 15 to 30 for Éric Ciotti and his friends. The progression is spectacular: in the outgoing Assembly, the RN had 88 deputies. But the RN narrowly misses the absolute majority since it needs 289 seats.
Our Toluna Harris Interactive screening on June 20, 2024
Credit: RTL
On the left, there is a New Popular Front effect, with 26% of voting intentions. But in siege, this would give between 135 and 165 seats, barely more than today, even in the high hypothesis. The majority is credited with 21% voting intention. In projection, this gives 95 to 130 seats compared to 250 today. Stay here right LR anti-Ciotti, which would have 30 to 50 seats compared to 62 today.
This barometer of voting intentions is the first produced after publication of the official list of candidates in all constituencies elections by the Ministry of the Interior. Each respondent was offered the official list of candidates in the first round of the legislative elections in their own constituency.
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