Q You were Prime Minister of Quebec from 2003 to 2012. What was your role subsequently in the various free trade negotiations for Quebec and Canada?
R I acted for many private sector clients in the negotiations for the Comprehensive Economic and Commercial Agreement (CETA/CETA) with the European Union and the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
CETA was my project with Europe. In the context of Tuesday’s election, this becomes more and more important. Canada must have alternatives to the American market.
One of our big challenges is being able to operate in these markets. Governments may conclude free trade agreements, but the challenge is to encourage SMEs to go to markets other than American markets.
Q What was your first reaction to Donald Trump’s re-election?
R It reminded me how well we think we know Americans, but we don’t know them as well as we think. This was my reaction in 2016.
There is a lesson in humility in that. Let us be wary of our own impressions.
We are close to the Americans. We are often questioned, for example by our French friends, because we are rightly seen as good interpreters of what is happening in the United States. Except we don’t understand as well as we think.
We were surprised by the election of Trump in 2016, everyone thought it would be Hillary Clinton.
Even on Tuesday, I had some hope that Harris could get ahead of him down the stretch. But that wasn’t the case. Trump also wins the popular vote.
Q How is this different from 2016?
R What was phenomenal about his 2016 victory was that he not only beat the Democrats, he beat the Clintons and the Obamas. But he had beaten Wall Street, and also beaten Hollywood. It was a total victory. Total!
There, the context is different. But the popular vote, the Senate, the House of Representatives… It’s trifecta! It’s rare. That gives him free rein. This is very significant.
And that has very direct consequences on us.
Q Are you surprised by the magnitude of his victory?
R Yes. I didn’t believe in trifecta.
There will be a lot of analysis to do on the exit vote. The question that will be studied a lot in the months to come is: who voted for whom? It is a harbinger for the future.
Once people take a step, they don’t go back. It never comes back to the way it was before! Never.
The other question is: what do we have to offer the Americans that are of interest to them?
Energy is the most important component of our trade with the United States.
One of the things that people have underestimated about American change is the fact that they have become energy self-sufficient, with the development of hydraulic fracturing. Today, Americans are the largest producers of oil and gas in the world.
It changes their perspective on the Middle East. But that doesn’t mean they can do without it.
If he applies a 10% customs tariff policy on everything imported into the United States, will he do so on energy that comes from Canada? With a direct impact on the price of gasoline? That would surprise me.
So, what do we have to offer?
Strategic metals, big topic. They need it, we have it. But between the moment of discovery of a resource and the opening of a mine, we can count on 15 to 17 years.
Second major subject, energy in general. This includes hydroelectricity, but also uranium. Since the war in Ukraine, they have been dependent on uranium processed in Russia to fuel their nuclear power plants. Nuclear energy is making a comeback in the energy sector everywhere on the planet.
Third subject, security. We are part of a North American agreement called NORAD. The Canadian Arctic neighbors the Russians. This is a subject that Trump has returned to a lot. Our collaboration on security will be extremely important to the Trump administration.
We can be vulnerable on certain issues, but we can also be partners on others.
Q François Legault is worried about a possible wave of migration from the United States. Is he right?
R We will have to wait until January to see how Trump wants to operationalize his announcement, his policy of launching a major deportation campaign.
We don’t know exactly how many illegals there are in the United States, necessarily. There are believed to be at least 10 million.
If he starts aggressive deportation, where will these people go? It would be very surprising if they retraced their steps. We don’t know, but we have to prepare for all scenarios.
Q What priority interventions should Quebec take to limit the damage?
R An inventory of who is elected and who is not elected. And continue to maintain sustained relationships.
The key in international relations is relationships that are nurtured, sustained and developed regardless of circumstances.
We must not wait for a crisis to knock on the doors of our interlocutors. Quebec must start by tending its own garden, along with all the states in the northeastern United States.
Q François Legault will travel in person to Washington in the first half of 2025 to meet people and hope to mitigate the impacts. Is it too little too late?
R It’s never too late, it’s a good idea. But we must keep in mind that these relationships must be established first.
Like a company that has important customers. You don’t just call them every time there’s a sale! A good company maintains ongoing relationships with its customers. Calls on them to find out what they need, if they are satisfied.
This is an exercise that must be done continuously and systematically.
Q Will imposing 10% tariffs on all imports into the United States, as Donald Trump promised, lead to massive job losses?
R I’ve seen at least three studies on this. It is negative in all cases.
What is intriguing is that what we export to the United States comes from the United States in at least 50% of cases.
The automotive sector is a good example. A part will travel an average of seven times across both sides of the border before final assembly of the car. Same thing for what the Americans export to us. A large percentage of what is exported from the United States to Canada comes from Canada.
So when you impose tariffs on everything that comes into the country, you find yourself imposing a tariff on yourself!
But this seems to escape Mr. Trump’s analysis, which simplifies the logic of the tariffs to the minimum. Which is infernal logic, where everyone loses. The first to lose will be American consumers, who will pay more.
Q François Legault will soon appoint “a high-level envoy” for Quebec whom he wants to see at the negotiating table for the renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Is this realistic?
R We had the former Minister of Finance Raymond Bachand, who was representative of Quebec at the time of NAFTA. When we created CETA, former Prime Minister Pierre Marc Johnson was at the table as negotiator for Quebec.
It can take different forms. But we would do well to think now about a person who could be the representative of Quebec at the table for the revision of the negotiations. Even just having an observation post is already better than not being there. You have to be there.
Q Kamala Harris also promised to further protect American companies from foreign exports. How will the election of Donald Trump further complicate economic exchanges between Quebec and the United States?
R Trump is more aggressive. He is more unpredictable.
In business, politics and elsewhere, having predictability is important. We invest on the condition of having clarity on the market.
If we don’t have one, it increases the level of risk. Risks increase costs. It has consequences.
Q We know the enmity between Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau. Would the election in Ottawa of Pierre Poilievre, whom you faced in the race for leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada, be preferable to soften future Canada-United States relations?
R We don’t know. Because it’s human nature.
Once people are in place, we can see. But we’ll have to see.
