The latest polls promise a really very close vote, the American system is complicated, it is in some way indirect and based on the election of electors, state by state. So, will we be able to say tomorrow morning whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris won?
Maybe yes, maybe no… In fact we don’t know… For three reasons. First, the very close nature of the vote which could be decided by a few votes in key states, notably in Pennsylvania which sends 19 electors to Washington, a state whose mood is changing: a Republican blow, a Democratic blow. Then, nothing says that the two candidates will not be tied, 269 electors each out of 538. This would augur long recounts. Weeks, like in the year 2000 when George W. Bush narrowly won over Vice-President Al Gore who preceded him in votes, but not in the major voters.
Finally, and most worryingly, Donald Trump has already spread rumors that Democrats are cheating and distorting the mail-in ballot. 80 million Americans have already voted. It is therefore entirely possible that he will not recognize his possible defeat, according to the principle that he has applied all his life: never say that you have lost. Heads, I win, tails, she loses. We could find ourselves facing an insurrectional situation, to the point that the security of the Capitol has been reinforced to avoid a new intrusion, like on January 6, 2021.
Many polling stations are protected by the police to avoid the destruction of ballot boxes, as has already happened with postal voting boxes. In any democracy, Trump’s attitude, which challenges the institutions he wants to fundamentally reform, would disqualify him. He has compiled a list of his enemies – politicians, prosecutors, civil servants, journalists – on whom he promises to take revenge.
Barbara Bush, a Republican alongside Kamala Harris
As a result, Republicans, faithful to the legalist traditions of their old party, chose Kamala Harris. Thus, Barbara Bush, the daughter of George W., campaigned alongside the Democratic candidate. But for Trumpists, the Bush family is part of the Washington elite, while Trump, the New York millionaire, represents deep America in small towns and rural areas. It’s irrational, but nothing helps.
As for the campaign themes – women’s rights, abortion, minorities – only come far behind the economy, security and immigration in the polls, areas where Trump is considered more credible. There remains an unknown factor, the women’s vote, decisive for Harris. “Woman is the future of man,” said the poet. It will perhaps be America’s.
US elections 2024 Signed Giltay
