Since the end of the Cold War, the American military presence in Europe has been fairly stable. While the American armed forces have a little more than 1,200,000 military personnel, of which 230,000 are stationed abroad, 60,000 of them are present in Europe within NATO. Could Donald Trump's victory reshuffle the cards for this military presence in Europe while China has become Washington's number 1 adversary?
The threat of a new American administration hangs over Europe… It was even verbalized on February 10. In one of his meetings, the Republican candidate Donald Trump assured that it no longer guarantees the protection of all member countries of theI'll take it facing the Russia : « One of the presidents of a great country stood up and said : “If we don't pay and we are attacked by Russia, will you protect us?” No, I won't protect you. In fact, I'll even encourage them to do whatever they want. You have to pay, you have to pay your bills! »
If he is elected, underlines international relations expert Cyrille Bret, Donald Trump could well seek to divide Europeans. Demanding from them both an alignment with the UNITED STATES and greater autonomy in matters of defense : « He has already announced several changes in his perception and action of the transatlantic link. He will remind us of the need to make Europeans pay for their own security. And the numbers are unforgiving. The American defense effort alone is nearly 70% of the defense effort of the entire North Atlantic alliance. So he will want to continue to charge. He will also likely want to establish a two-speed NATO. And then, there is a third inflection which is predictable in the event of the election of Donald Trump, it is the desire to preserve what is essential for Donald Trump of the American presence in Europe, the nuclear umbrella, the vectors and chains of command. And to delegate to the Europeans more and more the question of land weapons and the question of detection equipment. »
If the Chinese threat becomes a priority, could the United States keep a large contingent in Europe?
The question of military resources and know-how will undoubtedly arise. On the other hand, an American departure will not happen with the snap of a finger, even with Donald Trump in the White House, assures Cyrille Bret: “ There will be resistance from the American military apparatus where the Atlanticists are important. There will also be resistance in Donald Trump's entourage because not everyone is convinced of this reading of international relations where only China counts. There are “Cold Warriors” around Donald Trump, there are “Cold Warriors” who will be heard in the Senate and the Pentagon, so it will only happen gradually. »
A Democratic candidate not so far from Donald Trump
If the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has an ambition for the transatlantic link, in the event of victory, she will also have to face the rise in power of the Chine. Paradoxically this could lead to a position which in substance would not be so far from that of Donald Trump, indicates Cyrille Bret, only the form would be different: “ Encouraging against invective, all obviously to defend American national interests, is quite legitimate. Naive would be those who believe in Europe that there is a pro-European candidate facing a pro-American candidate. Both are responsible, it is in their mandate, it is in their oath, to promote and defend American interests throughout the world, and for Europeans themselves to promote their own interests. »
While the nature of the transatlantic relationship is changing, the American election highlights a Europe caught between Beijing and Washington.
