Traditionally, questions of international politics carry very little weight in the American electoral balance. But this time things seem somewhat different. The Israeli war in Gaza and its daily casualty ratio coupled with the American diplomatic inability to stop this dynamic of violence have deeply shocked Americans.
While a few short days separate us from the American election which will produce a successor to Joe Biden in the White House, it is very clever who can risk a certain prediction. Multiple polls give the two candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, neck and neck in what has long determined the outcome of this American presidential election, the Swing States.
This atmosphere of uncertainty and suspense is the result of two fundamental political facts. The first is that Kamala Harris seems to have reached some form of glass ceiling. The dynamics of his nomination in place of Joe Biden, prevented by age, of the multiple mobilizations of the world of entertainment, arts and media, feminists, the American left, convinced anti-Trump circles, ended up showing its boundaries. The polls do not predict any Democratic surge. On the contrary, Donald Trump strongly resists the charges launched against him by all those who consider him a danger to American democracy.
The second fact is precisely to be found in the sources of this resistance by Trump to all criticisms, even the most well-founded. Despite a style of proven demagoguery, political postures which border on fake news on a daily basis, he has managed to maintain a reservoir of votes and followers which keeps him in the race for the White House, better still, which positions him as the favorite of this election. It is clear that Trump has thoroughly worn down migration fears and the economic degradation of the country under Democratic governance to establish himself as a winning alternative for Americans. The whole question is whether this man, miraculous for having escaped a certain attack, will be able to convince a majority of Americans to trust him again and entrust him with the keys to the White House once again.
Traditionally, questions of international politics carry very little weight in the American electoral balance. But this time things seem somewhat different. The Israeli war in Gaza and its daily casualty ratio coupled with the American diplomatic inability to stop this dynamic of violence have deeply shocked Americans. What are generally called Arab Americans and whose voting power is currently concentrated in the state of Michigan, around the emblematic city of Dearborn, are at the center of a massive electoral seduction on the part of the two candidates. The State of Michigan is one of these Swing States that can swing this presidential battle.
The international community is watching this American electoral competition like milk on fire. And for good reason. The possible victory of Donald Trump could reshuffle many geostrategic cards. For example, the war between Russia and Ukraine could come to an abrupt end to the benefit of Moscow. Donald Trump is not part of V. Zelensky’s fan club and could stop the military and economic aid that Washington grants to Ukraine so that it can resist the Russians. kyiv would have no choice but to negotiate an end-of-war solution on Vladimir Putin’s terms.
On the other hand, Donald Trump is a great admirer of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who will not fail to interpret Trump’s victory as a green light to pursue his war strategy which aims to recompose the political geography of the entire Middle East. East.
With regard to Europeans, the return of Donald Trump to business in Washington is a dictator of anxieties and questions. The Republican candidate is not a fan of this transatlantic relationship in which Europe relies exclusively on American military protection without having to pay the price. When he was president, Trump had threatened in barely veiled terms to leave the famous Atlantic alliance and leave the Europeans naked in the face of Russian threats if they did not devote 2% of their budgets to defense issues to be able to purchase equipment. American war.
This threat is still relevant today and will undoubtedly push Europeans to fuel collective reflection on their strategic autonomy… to one day be able to ensure their security without having to go through the American box.
