The time for farewells has not yet quite come between Joe Biden and the Europeans, less than three weeks before the American presidential election. The American president took advantage of a brief visit to Germany, Friday October 18, in Berlin, to speak with Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer about the burning issues of the moment in Ukraine and the Middle East. Their exchanges are part of a complicated transition period, after the November 5 vote, on an international level, whether Democrat Kamala Harris wins or, above all, whether Donald Trump returns to the White House in January 2025.
Regarding Ukraine, the main subject on the agenda, the four leaders seek above all to coordinate their responses to the “victory plan” that Volodymyr Zelensky presented to them in recent weeks. In the mind of the Ukrainian president, it is a question of allowing his country to reverse the balance of power with Russia with the still distant prospect of opening negotiations to put an end to the fighting, if possible in 2025. However, while Russian troops are advancing in the east of the country, the demands made by kyiv to its main Western allies are giving rise to strong differences between Washington, Paris, London and Berlin. “It is an ambitious plan which poses complex questions on which there is no spontaneous convergence of views”summarizes a diplomat.
At the forefront of sensitive subjects is the question, forcefully relaunched by Volodymyr Zelensky, of an invitation for his country to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In his eyes, such a rapprochement constitutes the best possible security guarantee for kyiv, in order to dissuade Russia from resuming the war when the weapons have fallen silent. This invitation could, ideally, according to the Ukrainian head of state, come before December and the end of Joe Biden’s mandate, but the integration of Ukraine into the Atlantic Alliance would become reality at best after the end of the war.
Germany’s ambivalence
So far, the United States and Germany are blocking any prospect of NATO enlargement to Ukraine, while France and the United Kingdom are more favorable to it. However, according to some sources, the Americans would no longer have any objections in principle to a simple invitation. “If Kamala Harris is elected, one could imagine that Biden could move in this direction during the transition period. If it’s Trump, the reasoning is no longer valid and the slightest initiative from Biden risks making things worse”observes a European diplomatic source. A movement by the United States could nevertheless lead to a change in the German position, the most optimistic want to believe.
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