Missiles have been the “top priority” of the Iranian military apparatus for years.
AFP
The Iranian attack on Israel on Tuesday, more massive than the previous one in April, aimed to demonstrate the strike force of the Islamic Republic, while its capacity for deterrence has considerably eroded despite an arsenal as imposing as it is complete .
Limited missile stocks
At a time when its allies in the region are suffering repeated assaults from Israel, Tehran’s room for maneuver is limited, according to experts contacted by AFP. All agree that the Islamic Republic has the largest volume of ballistic missiles in the region, although no reliable estimate is available, and a full range of drones, rockets and cruise missiles with varying ranges. On Tuesday, she said she had fired 200, an order of magnitude confirmed by the Israeli army. But, if it wants to hope to saturate Israeli air defense, one of the best in the world, Tehran will undoubtedly have to launch even more missiles in the same salvo.
However, Farzan Sabet, of the Geneva Graduate Institute, believes that Iran has “the capacity to inflict serious damage on Israel in a short period of time – a few weeks or months – but not for a longer conflict”, having a stock of missiles “capable of reaching Israel limited”.
Remnants of the missiles, a “serious error” and fears from all sides.
Hamas and Hezbollah hit hard
The way in which Iran militarily equips its allies in the region – Palestinian Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria, Houthi rebels in Yemen – as well as Russia for the war in Ukraine demonstrates indisputable industrial power. “Missiles have been the absolute priority of the entire Iranian military apparatus and of the State” for years, underlines Bernard Hourcade, Iran specialist at the CNRS, in Paris. Tehran notably claims to have a hypersonic missile capable of reaching Mach 13 – or more than 16,000 km/h –, points out Jeremy Binnie, of the private British intelligence company Janes. “Its use (editor’s note: Tuesday) is not confirmed but, if it was, this speed may have been crucial to penetrating the Israeli defense system, even if the increasing number of missiles may also have contributed to saturating it. »
Paradoxically, this firepower did not prevent Iranian deterrence from weakening considerably. Israel, in one year, reduced to ashes around twenty Hamas battalions in Gaza and a huge majority of its arms production capacities, according to American sources. In the ultimate humiliation, this summer he killed his political leader, Ismael Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, and has just neutralized the leadership of Hezbollah, including its charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Who was Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah whom Israel says it “eliminated”?
Measured Iranian response
The Iranian reaction is moderate. “I think there was a kind of gentleman’s agreement within the Iranian government to say: ‘okay, we’ll respond, but in a way that is not excessive,’” believes Bernard Hourcade. . Tehran probably sent the message to the Americans and Israelis of its desire to strike on Tuesday. Not exactly a method to do as much damage as possible. And one manifestation among others of the fact that “the Iranian regime’s deterrence has been eroding for a while,” notes independent expert Eva Koulouriotis.
There remains, in an ever more invasive background, the Iranian nuclear program. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has significantly increased its reserves of uranium enriched to 60%, close to the 90% needed to develop an atomic weapon. But there remains a whole series of steps to take. “If we admit that, to be at the threshold, you need the necessary material, the necessary knowledge to make a nuclear warhead and the vectors capable of then projecting it, then Iran is not at the threshold,” noted a few months ago a European diplomat.
(afp)
