The year 2024 was marked by major political and economic events, such as the dissolution of the National Assembly this summer and the appointment of two new governments in France, and, abroad with the re -election of Donald Trump In the United States, all against the backdrop of strong geopolitical tensions around the world. On the macroeconomic side, the battle for the control of inflation seems to be won, allowing the European Central Bank to act as expected a series of decreases in its direct rates.
The national economic context, however, remains fragile, however, given a disturbing budgetary situation due to its deficit and future orientations to be defined. However, encouraging signals emerge for 2025, in particular the anticipation by Oxford Economics of a slight recovery in household consumption allowing to consider growth of GDP of 0.8% in France (1.6% in 2026) and an unemployment rate of 7.6%.
In this context, Knight Frank notes that the volumes invested in real estate (all asset classes) have reached nearly 660 billion euros worldwide, illustrating a certain stability. However, performance vary according to market segments, with a stable part (36%) of diversification assets (residential, hotel and health real estate) as a constant part of the total volume of commitments. This is the case in France where nearly 19 billion euros in assets were exchanged in 2024, including 12.1 billion euros for the asset asset classes stricto sensu (offices, shops and industrial) or a market share of 66% of the total.
Offices: the situation should improve
The distrust of investors concerning office buildings is verified on all geographies (from -40% in Asia to 60% in North America and Europe, compared to the average amounts observed between 2015 and 2019). It is also observed on French territory with less than 5 billion euros in transactions noted in 2024 (-30% in one year after -54% in 2023). Trends on the rental market in Île-de-France, however, reveal a demand placed resilient (1.7 million m² consumed in 2024, 47% of which are in the capital, a record) and growing rental values for the Paris markets, of which The central business district (€ 955/m²/year for new offices and restructured in 2024, +10% annual growth).
Office vacation in the Ile -de -France region exceeds the 1era times the symbolic threshold of 10% with a strong dispersion according to the sectors considered, from 3.6% in QCA to 14.2% in La Défense and almost 29% in permanent and first crown. Knight Frank experts anticipate the continuation of the immediate offer (5.6 million m² identified in early 2025), taking into account projects under construction (1.8 million m² including 1 million m² on the market : 372,000 m² in Paris outside QCA and 300,000 m² in the first crown) and current absorption capacities. The Ile -de -France vacancy rate could thus reach 11 or even 12% in early 2026.
« The Ile -de -France offices market signs a year 2024 which augurs for the new dynamics of companies: demand remains strong in Paris and in the central business district in particular, while the rebound of the Grand Gabrit signatures puts the defense in the race “, Analysis Guillaume Raquillet, Office Agency Director of Knight Frank France” The optimization of surfaces, their mix of use and the new modes of work organization draw the contours of a demanding demand while being concerned about controlling its budget. In this context, the offer of offices should logically continue to increase asking the urgent question of the treatment of obsolete buildings ».
This dichotomy of dynamics of the rental market is reflected in investment volumes in 2024 in Île-de-France: 3.5 billion euros including 60% for the QCA alone, 20% on the other districts of Paris and the balance on the rest of the Ile -de -France territory. The other marker of the current trend concerns the unit amount of these acquisitions – around 30 million euros – and only 8 transfers greater than 100 million euros.
The future buyers of 2025 will of course be sensitive to changes in the rental market, but even more so to the capacity of the assets put on sale to meet the challenges of tenant companies (normalization of telework and return to the office, optimization of work spaces at the Flex Office time, attraction of new talents and retention of human capital, embodiment of environmental issues in terms of energy performance, mastery of carbon footprint and climate risks).
Shops: a market forced by the household wallet
A sign of times of a consumption of households forced by too many uncertainties (unemployment rate, confidence of households), investment in trade (2.8 billion euros in 2024, -16% in one year) was Mainly carried by the sale of hypermarket walls and food businesses (800 million euros committed). On the sidelines of these operations, investors fell on a few shopping centers (13 signatures including 2 for an amount greater than 200 million euros – 25% of the Center des Halles and O'Parinor, a transaction from Knight Frank).
The format of the Retail Park continues to attract capital, of the order of 700 million euros engaged in 2024 through around sixty signatures, including 2 to put to the credit of Batpart which took holdings in Promenades des Flanders (59) and in a portfolio of 4 assets sold by Frey, for more than 110 million euros for each of these operations. It must be said that the opportunities of new assets of shopping centers and Retail Park are rare on the market, as evidenced by a level of delivery in free fall since 2019 (less than 140,000 m² completed in 2024 to compare to the 621,000 m² in market peak).
The foot stores of buildings and other flagships abound the volume of engagement up to 600 million euros, including 2 operations at more than 110 million euros (Mandarin Oriental and the 10 Halévy). Vacance rates of shopping arteries in Paris remain quite low, between 2% and 9% without major variation from one year to the next. This relative rarity of the offer explains the resilience of rental values prevails both in the capital (from 10,000 to 16,000 €/m²/year for the luxury typed arteries and from 2,000 to 5,000 €/m²/year for streets More mass market) than on the markets in the regions (from 1,300 to 2,400 €/m²/year – except for rods positioned at 8,000 €/m²/year).
« The prospects for this asset class will depend on the capacity of households to release part of their savings to energize consumption in the coming months and support the specialized trade brands, some of which (clothing and equipment of the person) are still heckled » analyse Krystel Daly, Directrice Retail Leasing de Knight Frank France. « The time is for the reinvention of businesses of shops to respond, for some, to convenience imperatives and, for others, in search of a purchasing experience brought to its climax concerning luxury brands ».
Logistics and residential: growing markets
Star assets of the moment and strongly acclaimed by investors, logistics and residential display growing performance for the 1is (+33%, 4.4 billion euros acted in 2024) and solid for the second (3.5 billion euros – provisional figures). The warehouses, whose volume of demand placed (2.5 million m²) reflects the paradigm change of chargers and logisticians more inclined to deploy outside the backbone, display measured vacancy rates – except in the North – and Rental values finally increasing (from 55 to 81 €/m²/year depending on the markets).
The residential benefit from a situation of the rental market under tension for lack of tenders, associated with credit conditions still complicated for a majority of first-time buyers forced to remain in a rental scheme. He is supported by a rise in new concepts of colving and student service residences while the habitat of seniors, struggling for a few quarters, is still looking for his second breath.
Towards a rebound in 2025
The rebound in the early investment market in 2025 could be around 15 to 20% in the corporate real estate segment with volumes close to 14 to 15 billion euros. “” This rebound in the market will be made possible by the conjunction of different factors and first of all of stabilization of macroeconomic indicators and the continuation of the relaxation of the key rates of the ECB “Indicates Antoine Grignon, investment director of Knight Frank France. “” Next come the proactivity of both selling and acquiring market players with a significant return of Core capital and foreign investors-United States in particular-and the end of the Bashing office carried by rental indicators revealing pockets of resilience resilience ».
Beyond the observation of rental or investment volumes, relationship real estate seems more than ever on the way to adaptation both to the levels of consumption, work and life and those that will allow a transition ecological and climatic. The definition of new hybrid concepts, as well as the reconversion of certain tertiary assets that have become obsolete are all avenues for capital subject to socially responsible regulations and funding.
-« In 2024, the real estate markets confirmed a recalibration of their volumes and a form of resilience in the face of economic and geopolitical challenges. For 2025 and subject to the realization of an economic scenario of an start of recovery, we anticipate a rebound carried by the return of international investors and a reinvention of assets to meet environmental and societal issues. France enjoys in this regard of an unrivaled market depth in Europe and a long tradition of capturing capital as varied by their nature as by their geographical origin “Concludes Vincent Bollaert, CEO of Knight Frank France.
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