The Canadian’s right turn

The gestation of rabbits, we learn from the University Veterinary Hospital Center of the University of Montreal, lasts 30 to 33 days, and they can give birth to a litter of 4 to 12 rabbits.

But if the poor bunny thinks that her life changes quickly in a month, it is nothing compared to the Canadian. Oh no.

On December 18, a month ago, the Canadian acquired defender Alexandre Carrier, against another right-handed back, Justin Barron. Difficult to say if the Habs had already taken off, but the team has just had, by far, its best month under the current administration, with a record of 10-2-1.

In himself, Carrier excelled, with a collection of 7 points – all at even strength – in 13 outings, a differential of +1 and an average of 20 min 16 s per game.

But his arrival above all highlighted a phenomenon that deserves in-depth study: the more defenders the Canadian has on their natural side, the better he is.

With Carrier, Martin St-Louis can count, for the first time this season, on two right-handed defenders (the other being David Savard) in whom he trusts. Consequently, when everyone is healthy, only left-hander Mike Matheson plays on his opposite side. Kaiden Guhle, often used on the right at the start of the season, has not started a match on the right flank since December 13. Only the brief absence of Savard (four games) forced St-Louis to deploy a lineup of five left-handers and one right-hander.

“It’s hard, especially for young people. We ask them to change sides, and when you learn the position in the best league in the world, it’s sometimes too much to ask,” admitted Jeff Gorton, vice-president of hockey operations, during the acquisition of Carrier.

While playing on his opposite side, Guhle was caught in situations like this, where getting the puck out of defensive territory became hazardous.

The numbers

To get to the bottom of this – is there another way to do this? – The Press offered a clever calculation of the CH’s record based on the presence of right-handed defenders.

We therefore counted the minutes played by right-handed guards, in order to arrive at a ratio of minutes during which the Habs have a right-handed guard on the ice. We have excluded from the calculation the game in overtime and the moments when the Canadian plays on the numerical advantage; in these two situations, the defensive game is completely different, if not non-existent.

Let’s take a fictional example. In a 60-minute match, Savard and Carrier each played 20 minutes. This therefore means that for 67% of the time (40 minutes out of 60), the CH counted on a right-handed defender on the ice.

Conclusion: when the Habs rely on a right-handed defender for at least 60% of the minutes, their record improves considerably. And it’s mainly thanks to defensive play.

In addition, the last defeat in 60 minutes for CH, when a right-hander was on the ice at least 60% of the time, dates back to October 31 in Washington, the famous vomit game. His record in the last 12 games where this figure was reached: 10-0-2.

There are certainly other factors to consider. Matches attributed to a shaky Cayden Primeau in the first two months now go to a much more confident Jakub Dobes. Dobes has won his four starts so far, all in the last month.

Except that even before Carrier’s arrival, Montreal looked much better when right-handers played more often on the right. In the first two months of the season, in 12 games the Canadian reached the figure of 60% of the minutes with a right-hander on the ice. His record was 6-5-1, much better than the 6-11-2 record when that figure wasn’t reached.

But at the start of the season, the other right-handers were Justin Barron and Logan Mailloux, players in whom St-Louis’ confidence crumbled from game to game.

The numerical disadvantage

With Carrier, St-Louis also counts on two right-handers permanently employed on the numerical disadvantage. Barron and Mailloux were used sporadically in this aspect of the game, so the Habs sometimes found themselves with two lefties to defend the slot, which led to plays like this.

Before the transaction on December 18, the CH still looked good, short of one man, with a return of 81.1%. But there was a right-handed defenseman on the ice only two-thirds of the time (126 out of 186 minutes).

Since the arrival of Carrier, we have counted on a right-handed back almost all the time (62 minutes out of 70). And the CH yield rose to 86.1%.

The arrival of Carrier alone does not explain everything. It is not because he plays more often with a right-handed defender that Kirby Dach has started scoring again, that Juraj Slafkovsky has gradually regained his confidence from last year, that Lane Hutson – who is evolving from elsewhere with the only left-hander on the right – continues to amaze the gallery.

However, of all the factors of success, we cannot ignore the fact that the players occupy a role that suits them. And that includes which side of the ice they skate on.