Crash in Kazakhstan: the plane “shot down by mistake” by Russia? This “worrying” hypothesis which emerged after the tragedy

The aircraft was operating flight J2-8243 between Baku, capital of Azerbaijan, and Grozny, Chechnya (Russia). But its trajectory diverged suddenly without explanation, causing the plane to disappear from radar, notes the FlightRadar tool.

The plane reappeared hundreds of kilometers further, on the other side of the Caspian Sea, near the town of Aktau, in Kazakhstan, where it crashed violently. On board were 62 passengers and 5 crew members: 32 survived and 38 died.

All hypotheses are examined by investigators to elucidate the circumstances of this tragedy. Initially, Azerbaijan Airlines had put forward the hypothesis of a collision with birds before withdrawing this statement. At the same time, the regional department of the Kazakh Ministry of Health mentioned a “Balloon explosion on board”without providing further details.

The “shot down” plane?

According to initial information, the plane, an Embraer 190, suffered GPS jamming while flying over Grozny, which disrupted its navigation. “Plane exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny”indicates the platform in a publication on X (formerly Twitter).

This theory did not convince Andrei Menshenin, an aviation journalist: “All “Every day, hundreds of planes fly in areas where GPS is being impersonated.” he explains to New York Times. But as the hours passed, another hypothesis “much more worrying” emerged: “that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by mistake by the Russian counter-aircraft” specifies the Italian daily La Repubblica.

“An external explosion”

Russian media Medusa explains that “traces similar to damage caused by an anti-aircraft missile” are visible on the images of the fuselage at the rear: “Additionally, images appearing on social media show cabin depressurization and holes in the seats (probably due to fragments).”specifies the media.

The region over which the plane was flying had also been targeted for several weeks by Ukrainian drones, recalls the Wall Street Journal which indicates that Moscow would have shot down 59 drones in the hours preceding the passage of the device.

The media FL360aero explains for its part that the pilots had tried to land twice, in vain. On a third attempt, “There was an external explosion and a piece of shrapnel penetrated the fuselage.”

Shrapnel also “damaged one of the left flap fairings as well as the tail of the plane and the horizontal and vertical stabilizers”

The investigation opened by the Azerbaijani general prosecutor's office continues.