The rapid fall of Syrian President Bashar al Assad has triggered a new round of delicate geopolitical maneuvers between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
While the dust has still not settled after the astonishing events in Damascus, the result seems to favor Ankara for the momentwhich supported the victorious rebels, while Moscow suffered a major blow to its international influence.
“In the game of Tsars versus Sultans, it goes to Sultans 1 and Tsars 0“, he claimed Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey research program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank focused on analysis and research to inform U.S. policy in the region.”Far from being allies, Turkey and Russia are competitors. And in this case, Turkey overtook Russia ».
The fall of the Assad regime opens a new chapter in the complex relationship between Putin and Erdogan, with broad implications not only for Syria but also for Ukraine and the two leaders' ties to Washington.
Russia and Turkey share economic and security interests, as well as an intense rivalry. The personal relationship between Putin and Erdogan often sees them praising each other, even as they compete for political and economic gains.
“There are currently only two leaders left in the world: me and Vladimir Putin,” Erdogan said recently, reflecting his respect for the Kremlin leader. Putin, in turn, has often praised Erdogan's political prowess.
Conflicts and agreements
Russia and Turkey have backed opposing sides in the Syrian civil war that began in 2011, putting them on a collision course. Tensions rose when a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian warplane near the Turkish-Syrian border in November 2015, shortly after Moscow launched its air campaign to support Assad.
The Kremlin responded with drastic economic sanctions that curbed Turkish imports, expelled Turkish businesses from the lucrative Russian market and cut off the flow of Russian tourists to Turkish resorts.
Faced with the enormous economic damage, Erdogan apologized months later. Soon after, Putin strongly supported him when he faced an attempted military coup in July 2016, helping to quickly improve their ties. In 2018, Moscow and Ankara negotiated a ceasefire and de-escalation agreement in Idlib province. – in northwest Syria, on the border with Turkey – controlled by rebels, and sought to anchor the often-violated agreement with follow-up agreements in the following years.
But while cooperating in Syria, Moscow and Ankara also vied for influence in Libya, where Russia supported forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Hifter, while Turkey supported his enemies based in Tripoli. Turkey has also aggressively sought to increase its influence in the former Soviet nations of Central Asia, competing with Russia and China.
In 2020, Moscow withdrew when Turkey's ally Azerbaijan defeated ethnic Armenian forces in the fight for the breakaway Karabakh region. Even though Armenia was home to a Russian military base, the Kremlin managed to maintain a delicate balance in trying to maintain close ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Although their political interests often clashed, economic ties flourished: Russia has increased its natural gas exports to Turkey via a Black Sea pipeline, built Turkey's first nuclear power plant and supplied the NATO member with advanced air defense systems – much to Washington's dismay.
Relations during the war in Ukraine
Ties with Turkey have become even more important to Putin after his 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe's biggest conflict since World War II.
The West responded with economic sanctions that expelled Russia from most Western markets, restricted its access to the international financial system, closed transportation routes and cut off exports of key technologies. Turkey, which did not adhere to sanctions, has become Russia's main gateway to global markets, strengthening Erdogan's position in negotiations with Putin.
While Turkey supported Ukraine's territorial integrity and supplied weapons to kyiv, Erdogan adopted Putin's position by accusing the United States and NATO of fomenting the conflict. Putin praised Erdogan for offering to negotiate a deal.
In March 2022, Turkey hosted peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul which quickly failed, with Putin and Erdogan blaming the West.
Later that year, Ankara joined with the United Nations to negotiate a deal opening the door to Ukrainian grain exports from its Black Sea ports, a deal that helped drive down global food prices before it did not collapse the following year.
Turkey's balancing act in Ukraine is driven by its dependence on the huge Russian market.the supply of natural gas and the flow of tourists.
Russia's focus on Ukraine has eroded its influence in regions where Turkey and other actors have sought to take advantage of Moscow's weakened influence.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan regained control of all of Karabakh in a day-long attack, while Russian peacekeepers in the region stood idly by. This has damaged Russia's ties with Armenia, which is increasingly turning to the West.
Moscow once again focuses on Syria
Focused in Ukraine, Russia had few resources for Syria by the time Hezbollah withdrew its fighters amid the war with Israel and Iranian support for al Assad also weakened.
Russia tried to sponsor talks aimed at normalizing relations between Turkey and Syria, but Assad blocked them and refused to compromise.
Assad's intransigence helped spark the Turkish-backed opposition offensive in November. The Syrian army, demoralized and underfunded, quickly collapsed, allowing rebels to sweep through the country and seize Damascus, the capital.
While offering asylum to al Assad and his family, Russia has reached out to Syria's new leaders to guarantee the security of its troops still there and extend leases on its naval and air bases.
At his annual news conference on Thursday, Putin said Russia had offered Syria's new leaders the use of the bases for the delivery of humanitarian aid, and suggested Moscow could offer other incentives.
Although Assad's fall is a blow to Russia, some believe Moscow could adapt to this rapidly changing environment to retain at least some influence.
“Syrian opposition forces understand well that the country's future is uncertain,” Nikolay Kozhanov, associate consultant for the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, a nonprofit think tank that analyzes major international issues. “They love Russia, if not as a friend, then at least as a neutral party.”
He also noted that “Moscow's main objective will be to maintain at least a minimum level of influence through a military presence, for example in its existing bases, or through contacts with other regional actors, such as the Turkey.”
Cagaptay (Soner Çağaptay is a Turkish-American foreign policy analyst and expert on Turkish-American relations, Turkish politics and Turkish nationalism) said that although Turkey wants to see an end to the Russian military presence in Syria , Ankara's position will depend on how relations with Washington evolve.
“If we see a reset in US-Turkey relations, where Turkey thinks it can comfortably lean on the US against Russia, I can imagine Erdogan taking a more vocal tone towards Putin,” he said. he declared. But if the United States maintains its alliance with the Kurds and opposes Turkey's efforts to push back Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, “Ankara could decide that it must continue to balance the interests of all parties.” parties, as it has done for about a decade. Cagaptay added.
Putin noted that Russia understands Turkey's motivations for securing its borders, but also warned that the Kurds could offer strong resistance if attacked.
Emre Ersen, a Russia specialist at Marmara University in Istanbul, also noted that although Assad's fall would diminish Moscow's influence, “relations between Turkey and Russia will not be devastated by the events.” in Syria.”
“Obviously, they still need to get closer to each other regarding the crisis in Ukraine, but also because they have very important economic relations,” Ersen said, adding that this could be expected. that Erdogan demands more concessions from Russia on energy and trade issues.
(AP)
Source : INFOBAE
