will electric bikes follow?

The prices of the raw material present in most battery cells continue to fall rapidly, which should contribute – ultimately – to a drop in the price of electric bicycles.

In short:

The average price of a lithium-ion battery has fallen from $144/kWh to $115/kWh this year. It even goes down to $94/kWh in China.
The price drop could impact the prices of new electric bikes, but not for several months, time to sell off the still persistent stocks.
Chinese manufacturers are already working on more durable lithium-iron-phosphate batteries with a non-flammable and non-toxic composition.

According to Statista, the average price of a lithium-ion battery has fallen from $144 per kilowatt-hour (1,000 Wh) to $115 this year, a drop of about 22.5% in 2024. Battery prices are even lower in China, around 94 dollars/kWh. In fact, a tonne of raw material is trading today at 75,500 CNY, or around 10,278 dollars, compared to 575,000 CNY (78,801 dollars) in 2022, a price divided by seven in just two years!

This drop in prices is attributed to an overabundance of supply, particularly in China, where many producers are seeking to maintain their positions in a booming market for electric vehicles (EVs) and in particular cars, which consume very large batteries. .

In the United States, the Trump government announced punitive tariffs on Chinese electric bicycles, which could offset the benefits of this drop in battery prices for the consumer. In Europe, it remains to be seen whether customs duties will be imposed on Chinese e-bikes.

When it comes to electric cars, the battery represents around 40% of the total cost of the vehicle. For an electric bicycle, although the amount of material used is around 200 times less than that of an electric car, the proportional cost is still high. Indeed, on a bike billed at €3,000, the battery represents a cost of more than €600 (€699 for a Bosch PowerTube 625 battery, more than €750 for a PowerTube 750 model).

Future price reductions on batteries could therefore directly impact the price of electric bikes and reduce the price gap between a muscle bike and an electric model.

The question of security

A discussion persists about the composition of the batteries of the future. Although lithium-ion cells currently dominate the market, lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries are attracting attention from manufacturers in East Asia. These batteries are distinguished by their improved longevity, the abundance of raw materials necessary for their manufacture and above all their non-flammable and non-toxic composition.

LFP batteries, mainly manufactured in China, are expected to overtake lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt compositions by the end of the decade. Their increased production will probably lower costs and, with the scarcity of nickel and cobalt, they could become the majority on the market, in particular thanks to the elimination of thermal and chemical risks.

For the moment, LFP batteries are still too large to be used on electric bikes. However, as with Lithium-ion batteries, energy density improves over time. There also remains the question of the safety of Lithium-ion batteries. From August 2025, batteries will have to comply with the NF EN 50604-1/A1 standard, which is stricter in terms of chassis, particularly for resistance to shocks and external elements.

A possible decline, but in the medium term

According to Bike Europe, imports of e-bikes into Europe fell by 28% in the first nine months of the year compared to last year. The prices of new bikes are not expected to drop in the coming weeks since the market is already heavily saturated with bikes already in stock, which do not benefit from new batteries designed with cheaper cells.

However, for the next generations of electric bikes, this trend could help reduce the price of bikes. The goal of democratizing technology remains a driving force for the bicycle industry in order to make cycling accessible to more people.

Gouach's repairable battery remains a good solution to benefit from the drop in cell prices. Compatible with 90% of systems, the Gouach Infinite battery is a model that can be completely disassembled using a screwdriver. It is possible to change the cells and make a diagnosis using the Gouach application. It is still possible to buy a Gouach kit without cells on Indiegogo for around €320, or a model with cells (500 Wh) for €430.