Result: households postponed their real estate project, in the hope of obtaining better purchasing conditions. And this is done according to players in the sector, who have noted a return of buyers in recent months. “In the last quarter, purchasing intentions started to rise again (+ 11% compared to 2023 at the same period)”observes Yann Jéhanno, president of the Laforêt network. A particularly marked dynamic for apartments in the regions (+ 16%) and in Paris (+ 19%) which is explained in particular by a drop in interest rates since the start of the year, going from 4.11% in average in January to 3.37% in November.
“Second buyers are today the drivers of the market, representing 53% of transactions”underlines Yann Jéhanno. Despite an improvement in their financing capacities, first-time buyers still struggle to build up a sufficient personal contribution. They only represent 31% of buyers in 2024, compared to 16% for investors.
“2024 is a year of transition where households gradually regain purchasing power and relaunch their projects”summarizes Régis Sebille, head of analyzes at Bien’ici. In one year, real estate purchasing power has increased by 4% for old housing. Positive signs, “but we must remain patient because real estate cycles are long and the purchasing capacity of buyers has not yet been fully restored”however tempers the FNAIM.
At the same time, housing prices fell by 3.9% year-on-year in the third quarter with a trend towards stability in recent months, according to the Notaries of France. Among the largest cities in France, Nantes, Lyon and Bordeaux recorded the largest declines for apartments, respectively -9.2%, -8.6% and -7.5%. The capital, for its part, saw its prices decrease by 3.9% to reach an average price per square meter of 9,470 euros, well below the 11,000 euros it touched four years ago. Only the city of Nice shows prices slightly increasing (+ 0.1%).
“Sellers are more open to negotiation because they have understood the reality of the market, just like buyers who have stopped comparing themselves with the 2021 market where rates were very low”analyzes Yann Jéhanno. While negotiations concerned six out of 10 housing units in 2022, they now take place in nine out of 10 cases, with margins reaching 5.9%, according to Laforêt. Enough to extend sales times. It takes on average one week more than in 2023, or 97 days, to sign a sales agreement, with the exception of Paris where only 82 days are enough.
However, nothing prevents the next government from resuming these measures. But to know the broad outlines of the Bayrou government’s project, we will have to wait until Tuesday January 14, the date on which the new Prime Minister plans to deliver his general policy declaration.
