THE prix from the seed of rapeseed experienced strong volatility between December 11 and 18 on Euronext and the walk French physical, and ended the period in clear decline, due to the decline in the values of oilssoybeans in Chicago and canola in Winnipeg.
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Another factor in the variation of values was the accident on a lock of the Moselle in Germanywhich disrupts the circulation of grains. The European futures market saw a sharp rise in values when the incident was announced, with users buying back their short positions. And this especially on the February deadline. In fact, deliveries to the approved silo Euronext on the river were stopped, and operators therefore adapted. Three French ports are still unable to deliver for the futures market, even if this can still be done at the ports ofGermany and on Ghent. However, the German authorities are doing their best to repair the damage, and 8 boats were able to circulate last Tuesday. The decongestion of the Moselle should continue during the month of December, before the interruption of the flux for repair work for approximately three months starting in January. The market also has a very marked backwardation structure: the price difference is around €15/t. The situation is even worse between the 2024 and 2025 harvest: the difference between the May and August deadlines is around €50/t. Then, prices started to fall again the next day, an emergency solution having been introduced. A temporary lock has been put in place, allowing traffic to resume. But he remains disturbed. The statistical services of the Ministry of Agriculture (Agreste) indicates in its latest report that the surface national progresses very slightly annually, going from 1.326 Mha to 1.335 Mha. In sunflowerAgreste has significantly revised its assessment of the 2024 harvest downward, going from almost 1.7 Mt in November to 1.5 Mt in December. This figure is more in line with operators’ expectations. However, some analysts find this estimate still too optimistic. Further downward corrections cannot be ruled out in the coming months.
The French physical market appears very calm in oilseed.
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Kévin Cler and Adèle d’Humières
Protein crops
Prices stable to bearish
On the French physical market, the prices of fodder peas between the dates of December 11 and 18 are stable in the East and Brittany. Those of fava beans are decreasing by €5/t in Brittany with sellers wanting to release stocks.
Oilcakes
Decline in meal prices
Quotations for soybean meal fell around ten euros per tonne between the dates of December 11 and 18. Note the sale of the European Parliament, which ratifies the postponement of European regulations on deforestation until next year. Rapeseed meal prices have fallen to around €5/t. The sunflower has barely evolved. Price drops on February 3 and May 3 stimulated purchases. The premium for non-GMO soybean meals is following a slightly upward trend and stands at €162/t this week.
From milling
Little change in prices for milling products
The prices of flour millings in the Île-de-France region did not change between December 10 and 17, with the exception of low-grade flour which lost €10/t over the week. Concerning this co-product, the supply from the French milling industry would be in excess compared to the demand from animal feed manufacturers.
In Brittany, the prices of fine bran flour did not change between December 11 and 18, like the Ile-de-France market. The market is balanced between supply from millers and demand from animal feed manufacturers. Departing from Isère and in the Toulouse region, fine flour bran classes are repeated from one week to the next. In the Marseille region, quotations increased by €5/t for its fine flour (stability for its fine pellet).
Starch co-products
Contrasted price developments
The prices of wheat grains on the French physical market increased by €2/t between December 11 and 18 due to a readjustment of wheat prices. For corn distillers, we observe relative price stability, with rapeseed meal prices varying little. Note low activity on this product.
Corn gluten feed prices on the French physical market increased by €1/t between the dates of December 11 and 18, in response to developments in the wheat gluten market.
Dairy co-products
Course without change
The price of whey powder intended for animal feed is nominally renewed in availability on the French physical market between November 7 and 14, due to lack of new business being processed. For milk powder, contracts were concluded at the same price level as that of the November reservations.
Fish meal
Courses renewed
The prices of fishmeal on the French physical market did not change between December 11 and 18, all origins combined. Activity on the markets slows down as the end-of-year holidays approach.
Dehydrated products
Bearish price in beet pulp
The prices of dehydrated alfalfa and beet pulp did not change on the French physical market between December 11 and 18, due to calm activity on the eve of the confectioners’ truce.
Straw and fodder
Contradictory price evolution of Crau hay
The prices of straw (wheat and barley) and Crau hay (commercial and reference quotes) on the French physical market did not change between December 11 and 18. Activity is still quite calm in the Crau hay segment with goods available but low demand.
The editorial staff
To watch
Military
- Dynamics of US exports.
- Rhythm of Brazilian expeditions.
- Level of dollar-real parity.
- State of Chinese demand.
Rapeseed
- State of affairs on the Moselle and the Rhine.
- Level of Canadian canola export volumes.
- Dynamics of Canadian crushing. to February
- Australian canola harvest level, prices ex-Australia.
Sunflower
- Price level of seeds and oils from Ukraine and Russia.
- New estimates of the French harvest.
- Pace of business on the Moselle and the Rhine.
- Level of Malaysian palm oil prices in Kuala Lumpur.
Kevin Cler
